BitcoinWhile , remained flat after Christmas, market sentiment remained cautious and signs of weakening corporate participation emerged. Analyst Doctor Profit claimed that we are in a bear cycle and that this cycle may last a long time, and that the bottom may occur in September-October 2026. In the evaluation he shared on X, he said that he moved his USDT asset to the banking system, cryptocurrency He stated that it did not hold and although he saw the possibility of a short-term rise, he read the main direction down.
Doctor Profit: Bear Cycle May Be Extended
Doctor ProfitAccording to , current market conditions do not support holding a liquid position on the cryptocurrency side, and the decline phase may last for months. The analyst announced that he had withdrawn the remaining USDT to the bank and remained on hold with zero liquid cryptocurrencies. On the portfolio side, its largest positions include a BTC short opened in the $115,000-$125,000 range and a mid-market short held at approximately $85,000. BTC He shared his thoughts.
On the calendar side, Doctor Profit said that a possible short-term recovery could extend to $107,000, followed by the next downside leg in the February–March period. Highlighting the September-October 2026 range as the “bottom” strengthens the scenario of a long-term weakness when read together with the horizontal outlook on Christmas day, cautious atmosphere and low institutional interest.
100,000 Resistance, 56,000 Support and Risk of Retracement to $40,000
On the intra-blockchain side CryptoQuantHe noted that $100,000 stands out as the main short-term resistance for BTC. The reason behind this is that the cost cluster of large investors and Binance users is concentrated around $ 100,000 in the short term. The average cost of “new whales” holding BTC for less than 155 days is around $100,500. This region is a critical balance zone where profit taking and new buying appetite can determine the short-term direction.
It is noted below that the average cost of Binance spot users is around $ 56,000 and may form an important support bottom during a possible long bear period. The average cost of long-term whales held for more than 155 days remains at approximately $40,000, indicating that this group is still in serious profit and may contribute to the recent profit sales.
Analyst on the technical front Ali MartinezHe emphasized that the 50-week simple moving average was a critical threshold in past cycles. Loss of this level in previous cycles resulted in an average decline of 54 percent, according to Martinez. This brings up the possibility of a pullback to the $40,000 region when applied to current prices. Although Martinez did not call for a sudden collapse, he warned that failure to regain the level could prolong the downward pressure.
