While gold continues to break records Bitcoin 
$87,442.17continues to move in a narrow band during the Christmas week. Singapore-based cryptocurrency market maker QCPHe noted that the drop in liquidity before the holiday and year-end corporate deleveraging kept the price flat. According to QCP BTC And ETH Open interest in the perpetual futures market fell by approximately $3 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Risk mitigation is progressing faster than redeployment, according to the company. Analysts expect a volatile and directionless course to remain until the end of the year unless a clear break occurs.
Band Is Narrowing As Liquidity Draws Up Before Christmas Holiday
QCP shared market in the evaluation christmas holidayHe emphasized that market depth narrows significantly as we approach the market. As investors closed positions, the open position value in the BTC indefinite futures market decreased by approximately 3 billion dollars overnight, ETH On the other hand, it was reported that the decrease in position value reached approximately 2 billion dollars. According to the company, although the outlook indicates that leveraged risk has been reduced, the risk of squeezing in both directions is quite high due to the decrease in liquidity depth.
The historical pattern also supports fragility because Bitcoin Christmas It often fluctuates between 5 and 7 percent during periods. QCP highlighted that these movements were mostly associated with year-end option expiration flows rather than new fundamental catalysts. Despite the decrease in the use of leverage, shallower liquidity creates a basis that can magnify short-term price fluctuations.
According to the company, as the end of the year approaches, the appetite in the market is focused on position clearing rather than searching for direction. For this reason, a market structure that progresses with intra-band volatility without a clear breakout signal comes to the fore.
Record Option Expiry and Tax-Induced Selling Pressure Are on the Agenda
The critical headline of the current week will be the record options expiring on Friday. According to data, there are approximately 300,000 units. BTC 446,000 with option contract (approximately $23.7 billion) IBIT The option contract will expire in the same period. This indicates that flows may be decisive on price. QCP stated that Boxing Day expiration accounted for more than 50 percent of the value of the total open position in Deribit, the concentration in options was concentrated at 100,000 and 85,000 strike prices, and the maximum pain level was clustered around $95,000.
On the other hand, analysts underlined that there was a remarkable shift in position distribution. Accordingly spot priceAs the price stabilized over the weekend, the put open position at $85,000 decreased from approximately 15,000 to 12,000, while the call open position at $100,000 remained relatively stable at approximately 17,000. QCP stated that the Call side at $100,000 was largely associated with a “call condor” structure, which although appeared to be a speculative experiment, reflected limited optimism for the Christmas rally.
According to QCP options marketThere are also signals that stress is decreasing. BTC risk reversal indicators point to a less negative tone compared to the last 30 days. Although the curve still has a limited put slope, normalization is moving towards early October levels. QCP stated that the downward positioning will be read more clearly after the expiration date on Friday, depending on whether the puts at $ 85,000 will be moved to a later date, closed or shifted to lower strike prices.
As the last days of the year approach, the December 31 tax calendar stands out as an additional determining factor for the market. Compared to “wash-sale” rules seen in stocks and ETFs, analysts say cryptocurrency marketHe reminded that investors can realize a loss and immediately take a new position. He added that this behavior has the potential to increase volatility in the short term rather than suppress it in shallow market conditions. However, he also noted that movements driven by Christmas week have historically tended to reverse as liquidity returns in January.
