Although the interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this week has created a short-term optimism in the crypto market, the picture seen in the options market shows that investors are being cautious. Bitcoin 
$86,989.86 While the price is hovering close to the 90 thousand dollar band, most investors are taking positions expecting a limited recovery rather than a strong rally.
Limited Optimism Predominates in the Options Market
According to data from options analysis platform Laevitas, the most traded contract was the $100,000 call option expiring on December 26. The fact that there are only 2,540 put options against 18,360 bullish contracts creates a strong bullish expectation on the surface. However, when looking at transaction structures, the picture is different: Investors mainly prefer strategies such as “long call condor” and “bull call spread”, which offer limited profit potential. This indicates that the expectation of a sharp “Christmas rally” in the market is weak.
The Fed’s announcement that it will also start purchasing short-term Treasury bonds worth approximately $40 billion per month for liquidity management purposes has provided technical relief to the market, but has not given a significant acceleration to the Bitcoin price. Although the 25-delta option slope has increased from -8% to -5% in the last two weeks, signaling an improvement, it still remains in negative territory, indicating that investors continue to seek protection against downside risk.
Liquidity Weakens: Year-End Pressure Increases
Bitcoin retreated approximately 5.5% from its intraday peak of $94,267, reaching $89,500 after the Fed decision. According to the evaluations of market experts, the main reason for this weakness in the price is that liquidity has fallen to historical lows as the end of the year approaches. “This period, when Christmas and year-end closures are approaching, always has the weakest liquidity in the crypto market. Trading volume decreases, price momentum loses strength,” says GreeksLive’s chief researcher Adam Chu.
Chu also emphasizes that the decline in volatility expectations does not support a strong rally. The weakening in implied volatility indicates that the market does not expect sharp price movements in the short term. This situation causes investors to avoid aggressive buying positions.
Despite this, optimism prevails in medium-term expectations. Sean Dawson, research director of on-chain options platform Derive, states that the probability of Bitcoin closing above $ 100,000 by Christmas has decreased to 24%, while the real bull desire has moved to the first quarter of 2026. The heavy accumulation of $130,000 and $180,000 call options for March delivery shows that investors are pricing in the possibility of an ‘explosive Q1 rally’.
Meanwhile Ethereum 
$2,804.64 On the front, a different picture is experienced. In the last week, ETH purchases, especially concentrated on OTC desks by institutional investors, attract attention. The increase in spot demand has increased comments that Ethereum may remain stronger than Bitcoin in the short term. Analysts think that institutional appetite may create further momentum for the ETH price at the beginning of 2026.
