A new market thesis is grabbing attention.
Author and industry expert Shanaka Anslem Perera says the Bitcoin cycle didn’t break this time, but flipped instead. And if he’s right, the bear market everyone is waiting for may already be behind us.
A Different Cycle
Perera points to one unusual moment: Bitcoin broke its all-time high before the halving. That has never happened in any previous cycle.
To him, that was the key signal that the usual four-year rhythm had inverted.
He argues that 2024 wasn’t a bull run at all, calling it “political repricing.” In other words, investors were reacting to the possibility of a pro-crypto U.S. administration, not the start of a new crypto wave.
2025 Looks Like a Bear Market in Disguise
On paper, Bitcoin near $90K shouldn’t feel bearish. But Perera says the signs are there:
- Bitcoin dominance at multi-year highs
- Altcoins “bleeding to death”
- $3.5B in ETF outflows in a single month
- A 29% correction from the October peak
- Sentiment indicators stuck in fear
A price that once sounded impossible now feels uncomfortable.
Bitcoin’s Demand Now Moves With the Fed
Perera believes the halving cycle was overtaken by macro. Once ETFs funneled institutional capital into Bitcoin, demand began tracking Federal Reserve liquidity instead of retail euphoria.
Some agreed with him, saying Bitcoin “outgrew its old cycle” the moment it entered mainstream financial plumbing. Others argued the narrative is compelling but not confirmed.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Perera’s conclusion is straightforward: if the market already lived through its bear phase emotionally , even at high prices, the next major move could be the real blow-off top.
In his words: “The bear market is behind you. Act accordingly.”
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