Japan just sent a shock through global markets.
The country’s 10-year government bond yield jumped to 1.85%, its highest level since 2008, marking a major break from the ultra-low rate environment Japan has lived in for decades. The move is already being called one of the most important signals for global liquidity heading into 2026.
Why This Move Is a Big Deal
For years, Japan kept rates pinned near zero while the rest of the world tightened. That made the yen the go-to funding currency for carry trades and helped pump liquidity into U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, and risk assets.
But that world is shifting fast.
Inflation in Japan has stayed above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for more than three years, and swap markets now price a strong chance of a rate hike at the December 18-19 meeting. Even politically, resistance is fading after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and signaled no objection to higher rates.
Shanaka’s Warning: “The Anchor Is Breaking”
Author and analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera summed it up: “For three decades, Japan was the anchor… That anchor is now breaking.”
Japan’s rise in yields forces capital to rethink where it lives. Japanese institutions hold around $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. When domestic yields were near zero, investing abroad made sense. Now, not so much.
And this shift comes at a challenging time for the U.S., with the Treasury issuing record debt and the Federal Reserve ending QT.
As Shanaka puts it, “the entire post-2008 financial architecture must reprice.”
Fiscal Pressure Adds Fuel
Takaichi’s new ¥21.3 trillion stimulus package is also pushing long-term yields higher. More spending means more bond issuance, right when the BOJ is pulling back on purchases. That’s helping drive the long-end surge that pushed the 30-year yield to 3.40%, the highest in modern history.
What This Means for Markets
Higher Japanese yields reduce the need for institutions to chase returns overseas. That can pull liquidity away from U.S. Treasuries, equities, and emerging markets – the same risk assets that have benefited from decades of cheap yen funding. It also makes the yen less attractive as a funding currency, which pressures carry trades and tightens overall market liquidity.
Crypto sits right in that chain.
When the yen strengthens and global yields rise, leverage costs jump, volatility picks up, and investors often cut exposure to high-risk assets first. Crypto may not be tied to Japan’s bond market directly, but it moves with the liquidity cycle.
The world built its post-2008 risk appetite on easy money, and Japan was a key source of it. As that era ends, every major asset class, including Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, will feel the effect of capital becoming more selective and more expensive.
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