Dated September 25 CME Fed Watch According to data, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in November has increased significantly. Current market expectations are that the Fed will cut interest rates by another high 50 basis points at its November meeting, at 60.3 percent. This probability percentage indicates a significant increase compared to the previous month and shows a significant change in market participants’ expectations.
Expectations of a 50 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut are Growing Stronger
According to CME data, in November Fed The probability of a 25 basis point cut at the meeting is expected to be 39.7 percent. This rate has decreased compared to the probability of 46.2 percent a month ago. On the other hand, the increase in the expectation of a 50 basis point cut reveals that the markets expect a more aggressive easing policy.
In light of the latest data, the vast majority of market participants believe the Fed will cut interest rates to 425-450 basis points in November from its current target range of 475-500 basis points. This probability has increased to 60.3 percent from 53.0 percent a day earlier.
Especially US economySignals of a slowdown in the economy and the expected decline in inflation are among the factors that strengthen this expectation.
Markets Eye Fed
According to the evaluations made in the previous month, the market’s expectation regarding the Fed’s interest rate policy was more cautious. However, recent economic indicators and statements by Fed officials have interest rate cut In particular, the slowdown in the labor market and the weakening in consumer spending stand out as the main factors that increase the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.
In the upcoming period, October economic data and Fed officials’ statements will be especially important as they will cause further changes in interest rate cut expectations. Cryptocurrency market Market participants in risky asset markets such as the Fed will closely follow all kinds of clues and data ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on November 7.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not contain investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should carry out their transactions in line with their own research.
