ETH Although it maintains $2,200, at the time of writing, altcoins do not seem to be bullish and volume is weak. In addition, before the negotiations that will start tomorrow, the Iranian Parliament Speaker stipulates “a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets”. Inflation is up 1% today as Trump prepares the military just in case. So, are we at the bottom according to Bitcoin cycle analysis?
Bitcoin cycle analysis
Bear markets end when sellers become exhausted and the conditions that triggered the long-term decline reverse. However CryptoQuant According to analysis, Bitcoin is just halfway there. This opinion 3 on-chain Confirming the data with data, analysts explained why we should not get too excited about the price at the 73 thousand dollar limit.
First of all, whales that hold assets for more than 155 days are still profitable. Historically, in order to be able to talk about the bottom of bear markets, their profits must be reset.
What we talked about yesterday MVRV Z-Score It hasn’t entered negative territory yet. Historically, every bottom has occurred when this data falls below zero. Currently, the market is cooling down and has been heavily hit, but this signal does not yet say that the bottom has arrived.
The third important signal is Cost Basis (STH vs. LTH). We should see a death cross where the realized price of Short-term investors (STH) falls below the price of Long-term investors (LTH). This last signal must also occur in order to say that the market has given up.
Cycle bottom predictions
According to CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom, STH and LTH cost curves should intersect in Q4 2026, he says. This timing gives the MVRV Z-Score enough time to drop into negative territory and is consistent with the latest panic selling story for whales. The expectation is that the bottom will occur with the price of 55-60 thousand dollars and the MVRV Z-Score simultaneously falling into the negative zone.
For the real bull peak, the analyst wrote:
“Following a bottom in late 2026, we expect a two-year accumulation phase. Combined with the Halving in April 2028, the market typically peaks 12–18 months after the halving, making late 2029 a possible time frame for the next parabolic bull run.”
So, those who expect huge gains in 1-2 years may be disappointed.
