Bitcoin briefly crossed $73,000 this afternoon, hitting a high of $73,115 before pulling back.
It is currently trading at $72,794, up 2.51% in the past 24 hours and 8.81% on the week.
The March CPI report that everyone had been watching landed this morning, and understanding what it actually said explains the move.
The CPI Report: Reading Past the Headline
The March CPI report landed this morning and the headline looked alarming. Inflation rose to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in February, marking the largest month-on-month increase since June 2022.
But CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published a breakdown that explains why Bitcoin rallied rather than sold off.
The entire rise was driven by energy prices, which surged 10.9% in March including a 21.2% spike in gasoline – a direct consequence of the Iran war’s disruption to oil supply routes. Food prices remained flat.
Core CPI, which strips out energy and food, came in at 0.2% month-on-month. The forecast was 0.3%.
“Looking at Core CPI which excludes energy and food shows that inflation has not deeply anchored itself in the broader economy, as there was little to no significant change,” Darkfost wrote. “This suggests that, for now, inflation remains concentrated in energy and largely reactive in nature, rather than systemic.”
His conclusion on the Fed was direct: “The Fed will do nothing, and will wait and see, as usual.”
For Bitcoin, a contained core reading removes the scenario the market feared most. The rate cut conversation hasn’t reopened but it hasn’t closed either.
Also Read: Bitcoin Bear Market In Its Final Stage? 2 On-Chain Signals to Know Before Your Next Trade
The Next Catalyst Is This Weekend
The CPI data landed on top of existing geopolitical momentum. The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7 already sent Bitcoin from $68K to $72K.
Now, peace talks between US and Iranian delegates are scheduled in Islamabad this weekend, with JD Vance leading the American team in what would be the highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979.
A confirmed deal would ease energy prices further, strengthen the rate cut case, and accelerate Bitcoin’s rally.
What to Watch
Analysts are flagging that April’s CPI data will be the real structural test – the question is whether energy-driven inflation begins spreading into the broader economy as the conflict continues.
$75,000 remains the confirmed breakout level analysts are watching. Whether it can hold above $73,000 on a sustained basis remains the immediate question.
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