The cryptocurrency market and US stocks gained value on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East eased. However, there were significant declines in the shares of major crypto companies Circle, Bullish and Coinbase. Especially the sharp movements in the shares of Circle and Bullish were associated with changes in analysts’ evaluations and future expectations of the companies.
Circle’s loss of value and analyst warnings
Circle’s shares closed the day with an almost 10 percent loss in value following the rating downgrade of Compass Point, one of the leading brokerage firms. The institution also lowered the target price to 77 dollars. Analysts noted that the USDC fixedcoin issued by Circle remained more resilient compared to previous downturns. However, he stated that the increases in USDC supply shifted to lower margin segments.
Circle is the company behind USDC, one of the largest US-based fixedcoins, headquartered in New York. The company operates especially in the stablecoin field. Circle is trading at 40 times projected 2027 adjusted EBITDA, according to the brokerage firm’s analysis. In addition, attention was drawn to the possibility of downward revision of the company’s 2026 and 2027 expectations. It is predicted that there may be a contraction in gross profit margins, especially in the first half of 2026.
In the company’s revenue model, it was emphasized that the increasing retention of USDC on platforms such as Sky, Binance and Ethena could lead to a decrease in Circle’s revenue. Revenue sharing agreements made on such platforms limit the profits made by the company. Even if the USDC supply remains constant, the increase in channels offering low returns may reduce the company’s total profit.
Drop in Bullish and Coinbase shares, new peak in Bitcoin
There was also a 6.5 percent decline in the shares of another crypto company, Bullish. Rosenblatt brokerage firm lowered its recommendation on Bullish shares from buy to neutral, while leaving its price target unchanged. Analysts noted that Bullish is currently priced above the industry average and profit expectations have weakened. The weakening of crypto activity in the market and the decreasing impact of non-trading revenues from the IPO make the company’s current pricing more fragile.
There was also a notable decline in Coinbase shares on Thursday. Coinbase is one of the largest US-based cryptocurrency platforms and serves both individual and institutional investors. The recent fluctuation in transaction volumes and decrease in market activity have led to lower expectations for the company.
On the other hand, Bitcoin price tested its highest level in three weeks, rising above $72,000 on Thursday. It is considered that this rise was influenced by the positive news reflected in the markets regarding the easing of tensions between the USA and Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he has instructed his cabinet to initiate direct negotiations with Lebanon.
The developments came at a time when senior US officials were demanding that Netanyahu ease the attacks in Lebanon and sit at the negotiation table. This step attracted attention in terms of going beyond the approach followed during the Donald Trump period. Trump recently allowed Israel to continue its operation in Lebanon before a ceasefire was declared with Iran. In this context, diplomatic developments in the region directly affected the course of the market.
On the same day, the Nasdaq index rose 0.8 percent and the S&P 500 rose 0.6 percent. The decrease in the perception of geopolitical risk in global financial markets created a positive wind in both crypto and traditional markets. But the stock performance of some crypto companies has lagged due to concerns about their own dynamics.
