Bitcoin traded around $68,780 on Tuesday. Recently, interest in US spot Bitcoin ETFs has accelerated. In particular, a total inflow of 471 million dollars was recorded on April 6. This attracted attention as the highest daily entry since the end of February. This figure stands out as the sixth largest daily inflow so far in the year. However, the high levels seen in January, which exceeded $700 million on some days, have not yet been reached.
Effect of ETF inflows on Bitcoin price
Bitcoin has been fluctuating just below $70,000 due to recent sales by major investors and weak demand in the spot market. Strong money inflows into ETF products play an important role in protecting prices by balancing this selling pressure to some extent. It is reported that the increase in institutional money inflows, especially from individual investors, has become a determining factor behind price movements in the market.
The demand provided by ETFs highlights the role of marginal buyers in the pricing of Bitcoin. Thus, it is observed that price movements can react faster than in traditional markets. The continued increase in ETF inflows continues to support prices by continuing to absorb supply in the market.
Changing relationship with macro indicators and monetary policy
Global macroeconomic signals do not offer a clear direction on Bitcoin in the short term. The US Federal Reserve is not expected to change interest rates at its April meeting. Expectations for an interest rate increase or decrease in the near term are quite low in the market.
However, according to the Binance Research report, there is a significant change in Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global monetary policy. The research unit of the Binance exchange found that as of 2024, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Global Easing Breadth index, which monitors 41 central banks, has turned strongly negative. It was shared that this year, when US spot ETFs were approved, the reverse correlation in question increased approximately threefold compared to previous periods.
Previously, Bitcoin generally experienced periods of relaxation with slightly delayed prices; With the entry of ETFs into the market, it was observed that the pricing evolved into a structure that took place before traditional markets. Thus, it is stated that the party that determines the marginal price is not individual investors, but ETF-based institutional flows.
Binance Research made the assessment that “BTC is no longer an asset that reacts to macro developments with a delay compared to the past, but has gained the ability to price ahead.”
Continued ETF inflows continue to support current demand and price stability in Bitcoin. As this dynamic continues, it is pointed out that Bitcoin is on a line that diverges from traditional market behavior.
