Bitcoin lost 2 percent of its value in the last 24 hours, falling to $67,000 due to US President Donald Trump’s harsher attitude towards Iran. Although on the surface this movement seems like one of the usual fluctuations, the underlying picture of the market structure looks more fragile.
Defensive positions and forced trades in the options market
Behind this tension in the market lies the increasing defensive positions, especially in the options market traded on the Deribit platform. In recent weeks, investors have purchased a significant amount of put options to protect themselves against possible price declines. It is observed that these demands spread especially to strike prices of $ 68,000 and below, and even to levels of $ 55,000.
It is considered normal to resort to such protection strategies due to the tension with Iran at the macro level, the recently talked about quantum threats and the harsh bear market that started at the end of last year.
Such an accumulation of positions results in the formation of a dynamic known as the “negative gamma zone” among market participants. In this region, the actions taken by market makers and liquidity providers who take positions against traders to balance the movements in prices can further accelerate the current trend. Currently, this trend is downwards.
Glassnode data and potential chain sale risk
Market makers’ gamma exposure is generally negative in the $68,000 to $50,000 range, according to data from research and analysis firm Glassnode. The reason for this is that market makers hold short selling positions at these levels in response to the long selling positions opened by traders.
If the price falls below $68,000, these market participants may try to protect themselves by selling Bitcoin to avoid losses. Such hedging transactions can further increase selling pressure and lead to a chain reaction.
“Negative gamma is strengthening from $68,000 to $50,000, just below current prices,” Glassnode stated in its weekly report.
Glassnode also commented, “By entering this region, the possibility of hedging transactions accelerating the selling trend may arise. This may create a sharper price movement instead of a limited decline in the market and may lead to the re-emergence of the $60,000 level, which was tested in the selling wave at the beginning of February.”
Following the option expiry on March 27, market liquidity is expected to remain low, especially during the Easter holidays. There may not be enough buyers in this process, and if the selling pressure comes into play fully, losses may fall below $60,000.
In summary, while Bitcoin is currently sensitive to conflicts occurring globally, the combination of technical structure and hedging strategies in the market can accelerate price movements. If the price holds above $68,000, the structure may break up; However, if it falls below this threshold permanently, it seems possible that sales will deepen.
