Yes, another “big reveal” event is approaching, simultaneously with the Asian market opening. Trump will say important things. In his statement today, it was already clear that Trump would announce “big” things at 04:00. Sources like Politico are already sharing leaks about the content.
Trump’s April 2 statement
Trump will make important statements on April 2, at 04:00 in Türkiye time and at 9 in the evening in the US time zone. We learned during the US market opening that the issue was the desire to leave NATO. But as the hours pass, the content of the subject becomes clearer. trump NATO and will make statements about Iran.
So what will he say? According to Politico, while Donald Trump plans to declare in his speech that the war is nearing an end and that the USA has achieved its goals, he plans to put the responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz on international allies.
The speech is expected to claim that “all military objectives have been achieved.” It is possible for Trump to kill two birds with one stone by declaring NATO allies as “scapegoats” because the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Leaks are also in this direction. Trump not only wants to leave NATO, but it is easier for him to declare that the closed strait, which does not “directly affect” the USA, is not his problem and declare victory than a ceasefire.
In his statements for days, Trump said, “hormuz We saw him say, “It’s not our problem. If Europe has problems accessing oil, it should go and open it on its own.” It is possible that he concluded the matter with this statement in his 04:00 statements.
with the USA of Iran There is “little evidence” that “a deal is close.” Trump said yesterday, “Even if there is no deal, we will declare victory and withdraw when we are done.” If the leaks are true, that’s what we’ll see.
Okay Trump from NATO Can he leave? Within 2 months he said, “I will remind NATO, which left the USA alone, of this.” Trump won’t leave here, but he can weaken the structure. The article passed by the US Congress in 2023 says that the President cannot leave NATO without 2/3 approval of the Senate or Congressional legislation.
The Biden administration had taken precautions against the possibility of Trump being elected.
What about cryptocurrencies?
The statement that the war is over is positive for cryptocurrencies, but since the end of the war does not mean the opening of the strait, the oil price will not drop significantly. In other words, the USA will be indirectly affected by this situation due to the increase in energy and food inflation, and the Fed will bring interest rate increases to the agenda. Tightening again while QE, which started in December, has not yet been fully understood. of cryptocurrencies It will take at least 6-7 months. Markets will probably price this in quickly and it will decline in the coming days.
As a matter of fact, even now, oil continues to remain above $100 despite the “deal and withdrawal” agenda.
If we look at the short-term effects of the 04:00 statements, we also have an Asian problem.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a transit point that sends a large amount of oil to Asian production centers.
- The USA’s announcement that it will withdraw and that it does not care about the strait may cause a decline in Asian markets along with the statements (the speech will be at the market opening time).
- Since the seller position of Asian markets always negatively affects cryptocurrencies cryptocurrencies decline lives. Worse still, in an environment where carry trade discussions are priced in again and the oil supply problem is on the agenda, cryptocurrencies may fall again.
On the other hand, the USA is massing soldiers, ships and aircraft in the region. What is the reason for Trump’s buildup in the region while announcing his withdrawal? This reduces the positive effects of the cessation of conflict for cryptocurrencies.
While Trump is months away from the midterm elections, he can calm the situation in order to gather his votes at home. However, if oil remains at triple-digit levels while doing this, it has no chance in the spiral of increasing inflation, unemployment and high interest rates. It is possible for now to calm the environment and then take action to solve other issues, but since this process will be turbulent, volatility in cryptocurrencies will increase. The target of $53 thousand below and $85 thousand above are the next extremes for BTC.
