The expected bull market for altcoins in 2025 did not occur and BTC has already fallen to 60 thousand dollars. The last cycle is not reminiscent of the old times for most cryptocurrency investors. On-chain analyst Darkfost says that if history repeats itself, the markets have at least 4 months to live.
Cryptocurrencies will not rise
Bitcoin Even though it reached new ATH levels, the price of 120 thousand dollars did not please the altcoin investor. A lot cryptocurrencies While last year saw the bottom of 2024 fall, the new year also caused disappointment. Moreover, now the potential for the Iran war to prolong makes the risk of collapse for the stock market clear, while the potential for more losses arises in crypto.
In its latest market assessment, Darkfost discussed the current situation within the framework of “Realized Price”. Today’s picture becomes clearer when money that has not moved for more than 7 years (lost wallets or ‘diamond-handed’ investors who never sold) is excluded from the account. In other words, when the old, dead supply is excluded from the calculation, we can find the cost of “live” investors who have been actively trading for 7 years and identify the key resistance more accurately.
This corresponds to $72,500.
“This chart shows a cost basis that excludes supply older than 7 years in order to better reflect the supply actually in circulation. — This approach filters out both BTC that disappears and coins that do not move at all, often referred to as “diamond hands.” — With this correction, the realized price is currently hovering around $72,500, which acts as resistance.”
of Bitcoin The spot price has been below this key zone for 2 months. So how long will this continue? According to historical data, in every bear market, BTC remained below this cost base for 6 to 10 months and failed to regain this level.
What is the result? According to this data, BTC will remain below $ 72,500 (which will be pulled down slowly over time) for another 4-8 months. Therefore, the earliest real upward trend is expected to begin around the end of July. The process may extend until November, December 2026.
Bitcoin Short Term
In the short term, our eyes are on future news regarding Iran negotiations. Even though employment figures will come on Friday Fed’s In this environment, we are unlikely to see the kind of employment weakness that would necessitate lowering interest rates. The triple-digit oil price changed things.
In the short term, the heat map warns us of liquidity pools clustered below. Tests below $62,000 next week would not be surprising. If sales accelerate, $56,000 could be a break zone.
