The recent withdrawal of Cardano has brought to the agenda again the discussions among investors about whether the asset has entered the accumulation phase or whether the selling pressure will continue. While technical indicators and on-chain data do not provide a clear direction for the coin’s near-term outlook, it is noteworthy that the price is stabilized at $0.27.
On-Chain Data and Exchange Positions
Recent posts by blockchain analysis company Santiment have revealed that the average annual returns of active wallets in the Cardano network have historically been in significantly negative territory. These levels have often been considered as accumulation opportunities in the past. However, it is emphasized that such indicators do not show a definitive turning point in terms of price, but only reflect cumulative trends.
On the other hand, especially in recent weeks, funding rates in Cardano’s futures have turned significantly in favor of short positions. Reaching the highest short selling levels since the middle of the year can often trigger adverse price movements in the market. Santiment states that major players take positions to buy at low prices in such environments.
Technical Analysis and Support Zones
On the technical side, the $0.25–$0.27 band stands out as a center where previous rally movements started. Ali Charts points out that ADA price exhibits strong upward moves every time it tests these levels. In the last two tests, there were increases of around 85% and 200%, respectively. Therefore, this price range is seen as a structural support point by investors.
On the other hand, according to Elliott Wave analysis, it is reported that the price movement is approaching the final stages of a broader correction structure. If it fails to hold on to the current area, there is a possibility that ADA will decline to $0.21. While this level stands out as an area where the influence of sellers may decrease in the corrective wave structure, upward resistances are concentrated in the $0.50 and $0.70–$0.80 band.
Momentum indicators, especially on the MACD side, imply that selling pressure has weakened and the market has entered a potential transition phase.
Market Expectations and the Coming Period
There are also optimistic expectations for the upcoming period in Cardano. According to the projections shared by the financial analysis platform TapTools, it is expected to reach $0.27 in the short term, $0.37 in the one-month period and $0.42 in the three-month period. While it is reminded that the forecast models here should be interpreted cautiously, it is stated that the general trend points to a gradual recovery.
The $0.25–$0.27 band, where the price is centered, is also of critical importance in terms of liquidity. While buyer interest has historically been high in this region, the possibility of a new upward wave depends on the defense of this support. However, the $0.21 area, where downside liquidity is intense, is still among the risks.
The price, which increased by 2.7% in the last 24 hours, still remains far from its previous peaks. On the other hand, the decrease in selling pressure and the accumulation of short positions are signals that the market balance may shift in favor of the buyer. The price’s recovery of the upward resistance zones will be decisive for the sustainability of this recovery.
