A last-minute compromise between the White House, U.S. banks, and crypto firms over stablecoin yield rules has dramatically improved the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year, a development that analysts say could be the most consequential regulatory moment in digital asset history.
Prediction market Polymarket now prices the bill’s passage at 72%, up from 63% just one week ago, after negotiators resolved a months-long standoff over whether stablecoin holders should be allowed to earn interest on their holdings.
The Stablecoin Standoff, Solved
Banks had fiercely resisted provisions that would allow retail customers to earn 4% to 5% annual yields on stablecoins, fearing it would drain deposits from the traditional banking system. Under the tentative deal, crypto firms will be prohibited from using terms such as “interest” or “yield” for stablecoin rewards, limiting but not eliminating the returns available to holders.
Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Crypto Council, called it “a major milestone,” crediting Senators Tom Tillis and Tim Scott for bridging the partisan divide. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse had previously put the odds of passage by end of April at 90%.
“Watch April very closely,” one Washington policy analyst wrote this week. “The path just opened.”
What It Means for XRP
Senator Cynthia Lumis, one of the bill’s most vocal champions, framed the Clarity Act as central to Trump’s stated ambition of making the United States the global capital of digital assets.
For XRP specifically, the stakes are substantial. The CFTC and SEC this week jointly indicated that XRP, Chainlink, and similar tokens would be classified as digital commodities rather than securities, a designation that removes a significant legal barrier to institutional adoption.
Evernorth, the company building what it describes as the largest XRP treasury in the world ahead of a planned Nasdaq listing, noted this week that institutional use of XRP as a cross-border liquidity bridge is growing, even if retail price action has not yet reflected it.
“The version of XRP that could drive sustained utility demand is when banks and businesses leverage it as working capital,” the firm’s chief executive said.
The $600 Trillion Comparison
Supporters of the bill are drawing parallels to the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000, which gave legal clarity to derivatives markets and helped expand that asset class from roughly $100 trillion to over $600 trillion within a decade, before the same instruments became central to the 2008 financial crisis.
If crypto follows a similar trajectory after the Clarity Act is signed, analysts argue that trillions of dollars currently sitting on the sidelines at firms like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs could move into digital asset markets. Hence experts say XRP could hit double-digits.
The Senate Banking Committee is expected to be the next critical checkpoint, with April seen as the make-or-break window for the bill’s passage before attention shifts to midterm election season.
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