In the cryptocurrency world, personal wallets have until now been mainly associated with models in which users control their own assets and third parties do not come into play. However, the special permit granted to the Phantom wallet by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in March seems likely to change this definition significantly.
Phantom and Redrawing Regulatory Boundaries
Phantom stands out as a widely used software wallet in the Solana ecosystem. This platform will be able to offer a user interface for derivative products regulated in the USA, with the “no-action” letter it received from the CFTC dated March 2026. Moreover, this permission does not require Phantom to register as a brokerage firm; It means that the wallet provides the transaction interface, displays market data to the user and can generate income from some services. However, it cannot directly access customer assets, cannot provide investment advice, and cannot establish legal customer relationships with users. These roles are still performed by brokerage firms, exchanges or derivative markets.
CFTC offers this model, which clearly separates software and customer relationship risk, as an expansion for software developers. While Phantom can benefit from revenue sharing and transaction-based fees, customer asset holding, clearing and custody functions still remain with regulated institutions.
Prediction Markets and Major Players in the Industry
Prediction markets stand out as the application area of this new model. It was noted that the global prediction market transaction volume in 2025 was 64 billion dollars, and 27 billion dollars in January 2026 alone. FalconX shared that its forecast market volume for 2026 could exceed $325 billion. Institutional interest is also accelerating; ICE Group plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket as executives from Nasdaq and CME emphasize the need for clear regulation. It was stated that Robinhood’s annual revenue from active contracts exceeded $200 million. Kalshi, on the other hand, raised $1 billion in funding and its valuation reached $11 billion.
Regulations and controls on prediction markets are increasing in the USA. In March 2026, the CFTC and SEC signed a cooperation protocol to harmonize oversight. During the same period, Democratic Party MPs introduced a bill called BETS OFF, which aims to restrict prediction market transactions regarding military operations and sensitive state activities. In addition, the state of Arizona filed charges against Kalshi.
The Future of Regulations and the Market Model
The CFTC’s permit stipulates that Phantom will serve only as a passive software layer. Users can access the markets directly through regulated institutions without losing their own assets. Phantom is obliged to make detailed risk and conflict of interest notifications to the user, to keep records and to assume joint responsibility with the institutions it works with. This model opens the door for wallets to offer access to derivatives in a regulatory-compliant manner.
According to Phantom; The permission can only be applied to a custodial model offered with a registered exchange partner; Derivative products in decentralized finance applications or tokenized prediction markets are not included in this scope. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the permission given by the Commission may change in the future and its limits may be narrowed with new regulations.
These developments may pave the way for crypto wallets to be positioned as multi-purpose financial operating systems in the future. Wallets have the potential to offer self-storage, payment and access to regulated markets all under one roof. However, it is stated that uncertainties continue due to regulatory struggles at the federal and state levels.
Although regulatory institutions in the USA have opened the door to innovation, industry dynamics will determine how widespread and permanent this new model in the market will be in the coming period.
