Ethereum’s native asset, Ether, has attracted renewed attention with major investor movements highlighted in on-chain data. The unrealized profit rate of wallets holding more than 100 thousand ETH rose above zero again, indicating that the market may be recovering from the bottom area. Following similar changes in past cycles, there were significant increases in the price of ETH in three and six month periods.
Whale Data Strengthens the Possibility of Recovery
CryptoQuant According to data, the group that includes the largest ETH holders has become profitable again for the first time since the beginning of February. This table means that these investors no longer carry losses on paper. This change in the market is interpreted as selling pressure may decrease and large investors will be more comfortable protecting their positions.
Onchain analyst CW assessed that the return of large ETH holders to profit has often coincided with the beginning of an uptrend in the past.
Historical data shows that after this signal, Ether gained about 25 percent in value on average within three months and around 50 percent in six months. It is reported that in the longer term, much stronger movements are seen in the one-year period. If this historical pattern repeats, ETH may rise to around $2,750 by June and above $3,200 in September.
However, it seems that this indicator does not always produce perfect results. After a similar transformation occurred in 2018, the ETH price decreased by 17.5 percent in a short time, and much sharper losses occurred in the following period. For this reason, whale data alone is not considered sufficient for accurate direction determination.
What Levels Do On-Chain and Technical Data Point to?
glassnode MVRV deviation bands shared by also presented another data supporting the recovery thesis in Ethereum. Accordingly, ETH reacted upwards from the lower band previously seen in periods when the value remained low. It was observed that similar structures formed in the second quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2025, and the price then rose above the realized price level. Glassnode is a research platform that provides on-chain data and analysis for the cryptocurrency market. It tracks metrics such as wallet movements, transfer volume, profitability ratios, MVRV, NUPL, exchange inflows and outflows, and long-term investor behavior on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some other networks.
At this stage, the price level around $ 2,353 stands out as the first important threshold. If ETH can settle above this region, the next target can be expected to be the band around $2,640. On the other hand, if the price cannot overcome this resistance, the possibility of retesting the lower deviation band near $ 1,651 remains on the table.
In the technical view, it is seen that ETH broke above the ascending triangle formation and then retreated towards the old resistance line. Such reversals are among the normal movements that test whether the breakout is permanent or not. If the upper trend line acts as support, it may be possible for the price to head towards $2,625 and above.
On the other hand, if this backtest fails, the bullish structure may weaken. In such a scenario, the range between 1,950 and 2,000 dollars for ETH may come to the fore again. Therefore, in the coming period, both whale behavior and the price reaction around $ 2,353 will be decisive in terms of the short-term direction of the market.
