Bitcoin, which had a strong start to the week, changed direction in a short time, losing approximately 5 percent of its value and falling to the level of $ 70,790. This decline was accompanied by weakness in traditional assets such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq and gold. In the same period, the increase in oil prices attracted attention, and while crude oil increased by 7.30 percent, the total increase since the start of the war reached 53 percent.
Capital Outflow Accelerated in Global Markets
It seems that investors are moving away from risky assets due to the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A total of $64 billion outflow occurred from S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs in the last three months. This figure stands out as the highest output ever recorded. The reversal of the $50 billion inflow seen in November clearly demonstrates the shift in market sentiment.
The cryptocurrency market has not remained independent of this trend. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced an outflow of $253 million in the last two days. Although total inflows on a monthly basis remained at 1.48 billion dollars, the outflow of 6.3 billion dollars accumulated between November and February reveals the fragile nature of investor demand.
Selling Pressure Has an Effect on Price
Market data indicate that the selling pressure has not yet been fully balanced. Realized profit sales briefly rose to an average of $17 million per hour, then lost momentum. During this period, the Bitcoin price fell below $ 70,000 again.
Widespread geopolitical uncertainty is shrinking the depth of demand and limiting the market’s capacity to absorb sales.
This assessment reveals that liquidity is weakened in current market conditions and even medium-sized sales can have significant effects on the price.
Similarities are Established with Past War Cycles
Market participants are comparing Bitcoin’s current price movements with past geopolitical events. After Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, Bitcoin first experienced a sharp decline and then recovered by 24 percent in four weeks. However, this rise was not permanent and the price dropped by 64 percent later in the year.
A similar picture emerges today. After the war that started at the end of February, Bitcoin showed a short-term rise and at one point gained nearly 10 percent in value. However, it seems that this momentum has weakened in recent days.
Market commentary suggests that liquidity pressure, rising energy costs and forced sales during times of stress are behind the weakness. These factors are considered among the factors limiting the continuity of demand for Bitcoin.
According to some evaluations, Bitcoin may need to find balance at lower levels to enter a more permanent recovery process. The possibility of recovery may come to the fore, especially after a bottom level that may occur around $55,000.
It is anticipated that the risk appetite in the markets will continue to shape depending on the course of geopolitical developments. In this process, it is considered that investors maintain their cautious stance and price movements may continue to remain sensitive to global developments.
