Despite the increase in the global money supply, Bitcoin has not been able to exhibit the expected rise recently. While Bitcoin, the most well-known decentralized financial asset, has moved in parallel with liquidity in the past years, this correlation appears to have been broken since mid-2025. The charts indicate that Bitcoin is not benefiting sufficiently from liquidity.
Money Supply Increases, Bitcoin Lags Behind
While the global M2 money supply increased by approximately 12 percent, the price of Bitcoin decreased by around 35 percent during the same period. Investment experts state that historically Bitcoin has risen in parallel with the growth in the global money supply, but now this trend has reversed.
In CF Benchmarks’ research, the “fair value” of Bitcoin according to the historical M2 relationship is calculated as 136 thousand dollars. However, the price in the market is currently hovering around 70 thousand dollars. This difference stands out as one of the largest deviations that has ever existed. Gabe Selby, the head of the research, said that similar gaps in the past have closed over time; But he stated that in the current situation, the gap is gradually widening.
High Interest and Energy Costs Disturbed the Balance
Experts emphasize that two main reasons trigger this gap between Bitcoin and liquidity. Rising interest rates led to a serious contraction in risk appetite. Investors prefer bonds and similar instruments with risk-free returns. Thus, there is a significant decrease in the tendency towards Bitcoin, which is generally included in the risky assets class.
In addition, increasing energy costs have increased the pressure on cryptocurrency miners. In the mining industry, electricity costs make up the majority of total expenses. The rise in energy prices narrows miners’ margins and forces them to sell.
“Miners are bleeding. Energy costs are surging and miners are the most exposed. Higher fuel bills mean higher production costs, which means compressed margins, which means one thing: forced selling.”
Mining companies are forced to sell assets to continue their operations. This process creates a structural selling pressure on the market and becomes a factor limiting the rise.
A similar picture is noteworthy in Bitcoin spot ETFs traded in the USA. While an inflow of $1.16 billion was seen in the last seven sessions, an outflow of $129 million and a price decrease of 4 percent were observed in one day. These fluctuations show that the market is moving on delicate balances.
According to experts, the range between 69 thousand and 70 thousand dollars stands out as short-term support for now. If it falls below this region, the possibility of a retreat to 60 thousand dollars is on the table. In upward movements, exceeding 72 thousand dollars is interpreted as the gap between money supply and price will begin to close.
