Galaxy Digital’s Research Manager, Alex Thorn, stated that the quantum computer threat to Bitcoin’s long-term cryptographic security is real. Thorn pointed out that the current hardware has not yet reached this level, but preparations must begin before the hardware is developed. Bitcoin is known as the first blockchain-based digital currency that stands out with its decentralized structure. Galaxy Digital is one of the important companies in the sector operating in the fields of cryptocurrency, financial services and blockchain.
Main Points Highlighted by the Report
Alex Thorn pointed out in the report that it is still years, even decades, away from quantum computers having the ability to break Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) infrastructure. Current quantum hardware does not have the logical qubit capacity required for such a calculation. It is reported that there is a significant difference between quantum hardware and today. Therefore, the threat is not just theoretical; However, it is noted that it will not be up to date in the near future.
Bitcoin Addresses at Risk
The report reveals that the risk is not at the same level for all addresses. Especially early wallets from the Satoshi Nakamoto era with address duplication and unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are more vulnerable due to the public key being openly available on the chain. In modern P2PKH (Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash) addresses, the public key becomes visible only when a transaction is published. Thus, attackers only need to capture the moment when the public key is public and obtain the private key before the transaction is completed; This offers a higher level of security overall.
As a result, addresses from the Satoshi era are the most vulnerable. It remains unclear whether the remaining Bitcoins from that period will be moved to quantum resistant addresses.
Steps Taken by Developers
Galaxy’s report states that the Bitcoin developer community has not completely ignored quantum risk, on the contrary, Post-Quantum Cryptography research continues. In particular, the Taproot update, which came into effect in 2021, provides the technical basis for more complex script types and prepares the infrastructure for the transition to quantum resistant signature systems such as Lamport or Winternitz in the future.
According to the report, for a possible upgrade, a ‘soft fork’ path can be followed that will enable users to move their assets to new generation, quantum-resistant addresses. Thorn likens this process to the transition from Legacy addresses to SegWit and points out that the transition takes years. It is pointed out that the risk is much higher in possible post-quantum migration.
It is stated that updates in Bitcoin are deliberately slow and cautious, and that this is both a security policy and a restrictive practice. It is stated that Ethereum is following a faster road map towards quantum security and that the experiences made on this platform may be pioneers for other projects.
Different Scenario for Quantum Threat: “Collect Now, Solve Later”
According to Thorn, one of the least talked about risks for quantum computers is; State-level actors archive today’s encrypted traffic and try to decipher it when quantum capacity develops in the future. Although this approach poses a serious risk, especially for private communications and sensitive data, it is not directly applicable for public balances.
Once the existence of a powerful quantum computer is made public, it indicates that the preparation window for the most fragile types of addresses may have closed.
The Market Is Not Pricing Quantum Risk
Bitcoin price continues to trade at $70 thousand levels. Institutional investors have shown no apparent concern about the quantum threat, despite advances in error correction from companies like IBM and Google. This situation, as Thorn stated, coincides with the assessment that there is no immediate crisis. The market is generally more inclined to price short-term developments; It is reported that long-term technical risks have not yet been reflected in prices.
