Bitcoin is going through a remarkable transition period in terms of moving averages. While the price remains above short-term supports, it remains below the highs seen at the end of 2025. According to the Binance Moving Average Convergence indicator prepared from CryptoQuant data, a clear upward or downward trend has not yet occurred in the market. Indicators indicate that the market is in the balancing phase rather than entering a new trend.
Critical Moving Average Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $73,000, which keeps it above the 30-day moving average of $68,661. However, the 90-day average is approximately $79,815 and the 200-day average is $93,892, and Bitcoin is priced below these levels. Staying above the 30-day average indicates a buying momentum in the short term. The market is not showing a sharp downward trend. On the other hand, trading below the 90-day and 200-day moving averages reveals that Bitcoin has not yet regained its long-term trend after the recent breakout that reached $107,000.
There is a difference of approximately $21,000 between the current price and the 200-day average. This level is not expected to close in a short time. A stable and strong upward movement is required to close this gap. However, the current price structure does not indicate that such upward pressure is occurring in the near term.
What Does the Z-Score Say?
Another element that stands out in the chart is the Z-score. Currently this indicator stands at approximately -0.57. Z-score reveals how much the Bitcoin price is above or below its historical average. A value close to zero indicates that the price is in the average. Positive scores mean the price is above the historical average, while negative scores indicate the price is below the average.
The current level of -0.57 indicates that Bitcoin is slightly below its historical average, but not in a serious bottom or extremely low price zone. It is stated that the extremely low Z-score values seen in 2018 and 2022 coincide with the harshest sales waves of bear markets. The current value is in a more balanced position and is within the band that in the past usually represented the transition periods between accumulation and the beginning of a new rise.
Cyclical Perspective and Price Behavior
The macro chart covers price movements from 2017 to 2026 and highlights the repeating structure between cycles. Especially after each block reward halving, it is seen that the moving averages first converge and then expand upward with the price. There is currently a significant difference between the 30-, 90- and 200-day averages, reflecting a significant correction from the short-term to the long-term. Historically, when these averages converge and the short-term average breaks above the long-term, it is considered a sign of a new bullish cycle in the market.
The 30-day average is currently $11,000 below the 90-day average and nearly $25,000 below the 200-day average. In order for the short-term average to rise above the long-term averages, the price must recover significantly and permanently; This process covers a longer period of time, not a few days.
Current indicators provide a picture consistent with historical conditions for a cyclical bottom. The Z-score is in the accumulation zone, and the price remains above the short-term average. The long-term trend line, which has been extending since 2017, maintains its upward slope, and it appears that Bitcoin has not fallen below this line on a macro scale.
The chart reveals that the market has not yet entered a bear trend, but it does not signal a clear bull period either. The current structure marks one of the frequent periods of rebalancing in the middle of cycles.
