What to Expect and How It Could Impact Crypto Markets

FOMC Meeting Countdown Begins! 

The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday, and policymakers gather for the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While markets are almost certain about the immediate outcome, uncertainty remains about what the central bank will signal for the rest of the year.

Recent economic data show why the Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision. Inflation remains above its target, with core PCE rising 2.9% year over year in January, moving further from the central bank’s 2% goal. 

At the same time, the labor market is starting to soften, with unemployment rising to 4.4% in February, pointing to slower economic momentum. This puts policymakers in a tough position, because lowering interest rates could help support jobs but may also risk pushing inflation higher again. 

Reflecting this uncertainty, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the policy outlook is essentially “a coin toss.”

Fed Interest Rate Expectations and Forecast 

Financial markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at this week’s meeting. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows roughly a 98–99% probability of a hold, meaning a rate hike or cut is highly unlikely in the near term.

The central bank already paused in January after cutting rates three times in late 2025, signaling that policymakers wanted more time to assess the economy.

Because the decision itself appears largely settled, investors are focusing more on the Fed’s economic outlook and policy guidance rather than the rate announcement.

Wall Street Is Split on Future Rate Cuts

While markets agree on a rate hold this week, major financial institutions disagree on what comes next.

Some banks expect the Fed to begin easing policy later this year. Goldman Sachs forecasts two rate cuts in September and December, while Morgan Stanley predicts cuts in June and September. Barclays also expects reductions later in the year.

JPMorgan believes the Federal Reserve may avoid cutting rates in 2026 altogether and could even consider a rate hike in 2027 if inflation remains persistent.

These different forecasts highlight how uncertain the economic outlook has become.

Prediction markets are showing a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18th meeting. Data from both Polymarket and Kalshi indicate a 99% probability that the Fed will maintain its current rate, while the chances of a 25-basis-point cut or a larger move remain at or below 1%. 

How the FOMC Meeting Could Affect Crypto Markets

Crypto markets often react quickly to Federal Reserve announcements because interest rates influence global liquidity and investor risk appetite. Historically, bitcoin and major altcoins have often dropped immediately after Fed meetings. 

In 2025, Bitcoin declined after seven of the eight FOMC meetings, even when the central bank lowered interest rates. This pattern is often described as a “sell-the-news” reaction, where traders buy assets ahead of major announcements and then take profits once the news becomes official.

However, analysts note that Bitcoin often rebounds within 48 hours after an FOMC meeting, making the period after an FOMC decision a common entry point for some investors.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction Ahead of the FED Interest Rate Decision

If the Federal Reserve signals that no rate cuts are likely in 2026, the move could weigh on risk assets. In that scenario, Bitcoin could fall toward $65,000, while altcoins may struggle even more.

If the Fed keeps the possibility of one rate cut later in the year, then the bitcoin price is expected to trade between $68,000 and $74,000.

Finally, if policymakers signal two potential rate cuts, crypto markets may see this as a positive sign. That outcome could push Bitcoin above $75,000, with stronger gains across the altcoin market.

Leadership Change Could Influence Policy Later

Another factor that could influence long-term expectations is a potential change in Federal Reserve leadership.

Chair Jerome Powell is expected to step down in May, and his possible successor, Kevin Warsh, is generally viewed as more hawkish on inflation.

However, even under new leadership, the central bank could still move toward rate cuts if economic growth slows significantly.

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