Cryptocurrency analyst Joao Wedson has determined that the rising trend in the MVRV ratio among long-term investors of Bitcoin creates a higher base at each cycle bottom. According to Wedson, the possibility of this structure finding the base zone at 0.85 for the current cycle stands out.
MVRV Metric and Long-Term Investors
The Long-Term Investor MVRV rate is based on Bitcoin wallets held for at least 155 days. This ratio shows the ratio between the current market value and the total cost of long-term positions. A ratio falling below 1 indicates that investors in this group have suffered a collective loss. The metric emphasizes long-term investors’ faith in the market, and moments when this group is at a loss are often seen as the most pressing phase of the bear cycle.
Providing more signals than the standard MVRV, this indicator historically marks the strongest accumulation periods. The periods when long-term investors make losses on average stand out as the times when the most accumulation opportunities occur and sales pressure decreases.
Wedson’s Chart Analysis
The chart shared by Wedson includes data from 2012 to March 2026 and compares the long-term investor MVRV rate and Bitcoin price on a logarithmic scale. The bottoms of the previous four cycles occurred at 0.51, 0.67, 0.72 and 0.78, respectively. With each new cycle, the bottom was higher than the previous one, and the difference between them was usually 0.05 to 0.06 points.
According to the diagonal line created in line with the trend, the bottom level is expected to fall around 0.85 in the next cycle. In Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $70,600, the long-term investor MVRV rate is above this base. This indicates that the possible bottom level has not been reached yet.
Structural Factors Behind the Rising Base
The gradual rise of the MVRV base is seen to be linked to the maturation of the investor base in Bitcoin. Each cycle, long-term investors who bought at higher prices began pushing that average upward. As the cost for long-term investors has increased, the price level that requires the MVRV ratio to fall below 1 has also increased.
The recent involvement of institutional investors in the market through ETF products has created a new long-term holder group, especially with purchases in the range of $ 60,000 to $ 100,000. This increases the realized value base for Bitcoin while also reducing volatility in the metric.
Wedson’s Positioning Strategy
Wedson set an alarm for the long-term investor MVRV ratio at 1.2 via the Alphractal application. This threshold is above the likely 0.85 floor and is set to be used as an early warning method if the metric approaches that opportunity zone.
Joao Wedson shared his reasoning by saying, “If the formation continues, the 0.85 region will form the strongest accumulation range of the current cycle. The alarm I set at the 1.2 level allows me to prepare in advance as we approach the opportunity zone.”
Wedson’s approach aims to facilitate gradual position taking if the metric begins to lose value.
In the short term, although the base zone has followed an upward trend in the previous three cycles, it is not guaranteed that this pattern will necessarily repeat. It is stated that factors such as market dynamics, macroeconomic data and US Federal Reserve meetings may also play an important role and the bottom level in the new cycle may differ.
