While the Bitcoin price continues to remain above the $70,000 level, long-term investors appear to be maintaining their cost base at this threshold. Long-term holders’ on-chain profit-to-loss ratio (LTH-SOPR) currently stands at 1.01. This value has historically been described as the boundary between accumulation and sale.
LTH-SOPR 1.01 Level and Its Meaning
LTH-SOPR shows whether wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days are making profit or loss. If the index is above 1, long-term investors generally act with profit; If it falls below, it indicates that the loss has been realized. The current level of 1.01 means that investors are making sales at prices close to their costs, and large profits or panic selling are not at the forefront.
A published analysis chart shows the relationship between LTH-SOPR and Bitcoin price from January 2022 to March 2026. In the bear market of 2022, this index remained below 1 for a long time, revealing that investors sold at a loss. The fact that the index remained above 1 after 2023 showed that long-term investors acted more safely during recovery periods.
Dynamics Behind Price Stability
The highlight on March 13 was the on-chain distribution rather than the major price movement. That day, wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC sold a total of 16,100 BTC in a single day. However, the Bitcoin price fell only 0.33 percent. The reason for this is explained as the balancing of selling pressure as very large investors holding more than 10,000 BTC at the same time turn to repurchase. In addition, wallets between 100 and 1,000 BTC also covered these sales, so there was no sharp decline in the market as expected.
According to the analysis, the fact that such strong sales have almost no effect on the price stands out as an indicator that the demands at current levels can withstand the sales.
Impact of Institutional ETF Demands
Spot Bitcoin ETFs managed by institutional investors have also created a third layer of demand, reinforcing the narrative. During the week of March 9-13, a total of $763.4 million net inflows occurred into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. On March 13 alone, there was a new inflow of $180.4 million, which ensured that the large-scale selling on the same day did not shake the market.
Thus, large investors, called mega-whales, collected the sales of medium-sized investors. During the same period, demand for ETFs continued and the market showed a strong absorption ability.
Puell Multiple and Potential Price Correction
The Puell Multiple index is currently at 0.60. This ratio shows that miners’ income is lagging behind the historical average. When the index is below 1, the potential for miners to create selling pressure decreases. The fact that the index approaches the 0.50 level keeps the view that there may be a deeper price test on the agenda. The realized price at $ 54,400 is pointed out as one of the areas determined as the bottom zone in previous cycles.
In the analysis, the $ 70,000 level is emphasized as a “turning point bottom” and a potential retest possibility below $ 54,000 is highlighted. The fact that LTH-SOPR remains above 1 is considered a leading indicator of which scenario will dominate in the coming weeks.
