The annual growth rate of Bitcoin’s short-term realized price fell to minus 2.4 percent, returning to the negative zone after a long break. This development points to a structure that was also seen during the difficult periods of past bear markets.
Meaning of Short-Term Investor Realized Price
The short-term investor realized price represents the average cost of Bitcoins purchased over the last 155 days. The annual growth rate of this indicator shows how much the current average cost has increased or decreased compared to a year ago. If the ratio is positive, it means that new buyers are trading at a higher price than last year and participation in the market is increasing. If it is negative, new buyers take positions at a lower price than the previous year and short-term investors are generally considered to have made a loss.
The current reading of minus 2.4 percent indicates that this investor base is collectively under water compared to a year ago and position costs have decreased.
Historical Similarities in the Chart
In the chart prepared with CryptoQuant’s data from 2015 to 2026, two important periods are marked between 2018-2019 and 2022-2023, when this indicator turned deeply negative. The first of these periods coincides with the long-lasting bear market that started after Bitcoin’s peak of $ 19,783. The second covers the period when the price dropped to $ 15,500 after the cycle peak at $ 69,000.
In the most recent part of the chart, the blue area appears to have approached zero and is now down to negative 2.4 percent. Additionally, it is noteworthy that this blue indicator is well below the 140 level. This reveals that short-term investors have suffered significant losses compared to the past.
Necessary Conditions for the Future of the Indicator
Historically, periods when this indicator turns negative correspond to periods when market momentum loses strength and speculative purchases retreat. The fact that short-term investors are at a loss generally indicates that the structural fragility in the market is increasing. However, it is stated that this does not mean that this situation directly leads to a sudden price drop; This rather indicates that the momentum is weakening.
In order for the indicator in question to recover again, short-term investors need to buy steadily above the existing levels. This requires either new buyers to trade at higher levels as current prices rise, or a scenario where loss-making investors are replaced by fresh buyers at similar and higher prices.
According to current data, it seems that these two conditions have not yet been met and the indicator continues to remain in the negative zone. How long this trend lasts will depend on the overall performance of the market in the coming weeks.
