It is noteworthy that Bitcoin has performed much better than stocks and gold for 60 days following important geopolitical and financial developments in recent years. A new report analyzing seven major international crises shows that Bitcoin provides positive returns in all cases, while stocks and gold experience losses in some periods.
Bitcoin’s Performance in Various Crises
The process examined includes seven separate events, from the tension between the USA and Iran to the coronavirus epidemic, from the Russia-Ukraine war to the regional banking crisis in the USA. After these events, the 60-day returns of S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin were evaluated. According to the findings of the report, after the US-Iran tension, S&P 500 decreased by 7 percent, while gold gained 6 percent and Bitcoin gained 20 percent.
During the Covid-19 outbreak in March 2020, all assets started to recover. Bitcoin rose 21 percent during this period, ahead of gold and the S&P 500’s gains of 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively. In the Russia-Ukraine war that started in February 2022, gold fell by 9 percent, S&P 500 rose by 3 percent, and Bitcoin rose by 15 percent.
During the banking crisis in the USA in March 2023, Bitcoin performed the best and increased by 32 percent. In the same period, gold gained 11 percent and S&P 500 gained 4 percent. Only during the Japanese Yen-related financial shock in August 2024, Bitcoin’s yield remained low compared to other periods, remaining at 3 percent. During this period, S&P 500 gained 7 percent and gold gained 9 percent.
Average Returns and Notable Points
According to the general picture emerging from the report, Bitcoin provided positive returns in the 60-day period after all events and showed an average performance of around 18 percent. This rate remained at an average of 3 percent in the S&P 500 and approximately 4 percent in gold. While gold and the S&P 500 had negative returns on two occasions, even Bitcoin’s lowest return was in the positive zone.
In the cryptocurrency world, it has long been debated whether Bitcoin is a traditional safe haven in financial crises. Especially in the bear market of 2022, Bitcoin, along with risky assets, lost significant value along with the tightening in monetary policy. However, the report points out that Bitcoin’s behavior differs during periods of stress other than monetary policy and shows a strong performance, especially in geopolitical and financial tensions.
Developments in the Latest Iran Crisis
The most current data comes from the crisis originating from Iran, which started in February 2026. In this incident, 13 days have passed, while stocks and gold are in the negative zone, Bitcoin has increased by 14 percent. However, whether the 60-day period will be completed and what the total return will be will depend on both developments in Iran and future macroeconomic indicators.
Rather than clearly revealing whether Bitcoin is a safe haven in the traditional sense, the report reveals with numbers what happens in practice during crisis periods. Excluding just a financial shock in 2024, Bitcoin appears to have offered higher returns than stocks and gold on six out of seven occasions.
