We continue to see new developments. Iran’s UN representative says that they have not closed the Strait of Hormuz, but the Revolutionary Guards say that they will shoot anyone who tries to cross, they are attacking. The dual-headed administration in Iran (political administration, revolutionary guards, religious leadership) can deny each other quite normally, this is a kind of strategy of Iran. Today we will dive a little into the on-chain for Bitcoin, it will be useful to see the change in crypto.
2021 vs 2025 Bitcoin
cryptocurrencies He attracted buyers to the game by writing a different story every cycle. Doors opening to corporate participation in 2024-2025 (ETFlegal regulations, US support for crypto through Trump, etc.) also caused the investor profile to change. This also caused on-chain readings to produce incorrect results.
For example, Ki Young Ju said that looking at the combination of many metrics, bear markets clearly started in cryptocurrencies in March 2025. But before the year is over BTC It reached its new peak at 120 thousand dollars. Ki Young Ju, who admitted that he was wrong after his warning in March, said that “the change in cryptocurrencies is not well understood.”
Today, Darkfost tried to explain why the perception that “long-term (LTH) investors are selling” is misleading in the new period. The perception in the 2025 cycle was that there would be even greater long-term sales than 2021. However, while 15.1 million BTC was spent by LTHs in 2025, 15.3 million BTC was spent in the 2021 cycle, meaning the selling pressure did not increase compared to the previous cycle.
This data leads to misinterpretations because it is distorted by the internal actions of certain organizations. For example, Coinbase moved around 800,000 BTC, most of which was classified as LTH supply. Although this distortion has been removed from Darkfost’s graph, most on-chain readings are still made without taking such details into account.
As more organizations began operating in the market, internal transfers also increased. Here is the structural change of 2025. In reality, LTHs have spent less BTC than shown here, mostly because of the internal movements of major crypto companies.
The first major structural change in this cycle will occur in January 2024 spot Bitcoin ETFs was to be released. Today, ETFs hold 1.3 million BTC, representing approximately 6.7% of the total supply. These assets often have to maintain a certain level of reserves to meet long-term investor demand. The second big change is the large reserve companies. These companies have chosen to hold BTC as a reserve asset and currently hold 1.1 million BTC, which is 5% of the BTC supply.
These new actors add a different dimension to the group currently defined as Long-Term Holders. Over time, as the number of these organizations increases, LTH selling pressure may become more stable. Therefore, as Bitcoin’s ownership structure continues to evolve, the current definition of LTH may eventually become inadequate.
Why Bitcoin Became a Technology Stock?
What happened to Bitcoin that made it this way? Life was not this difficult for cryptocurrencies before 2021. We were still seeing big fluctuations, but this was more related to its internal dynamics. At this point today, as we explained in the first section, there has been a major change in the long-term investor profile.
First of all, this change renders the old cycle readings useless. He throws away the classical perspectives. And of course to crypto draws a different future. There were short-termists and diamond hands in crypto. Now “steel hands” have been added to this. Reserve companies, the majority of ETF investors are in this category.
The steel hands category is divided within itself, especially on the ETF side. A significant portion of these investors are companies, funds, traders, investment managers and many more who trade with traditional markets other than crypto. The trading strategy they have become accustomed to has turned Bitcoin into an asset that “prices risk” and performs like a “technology stock”. That’s why the developments that hit technology stocks also shake Bitcoin because the flight triggered by the outflows in the ETF channel reaches larger masses. This necessitates the investor in the stock market to take a position by taking the investor in the ETF channel seriously.
Add to all this the many new problems specific to crypto, and the picture has become even more complicated.
In summary, we can say this;
“There are 1.15 million BTC in the hands of public companies, 288 thousand in the hands of private companies, 650 thousand in the hands of governments, and 1.603 million in the ETF channel. In total, there is approximately 3.7 million BTC.”
There are also 1.1 million BTC in the Nakamoto wallet, an estimated total of 2 million in mining losses and early forgotten ones, and 500 thousand in individual losses, that is, 3.7 million BTC in total. The number matches interestingly.
At best, 7.4 million of the 20 million BTC supply is largely inactive. Approximately half of this is now in the hands of professional investors. (It is important to look at these figures as a whole to understand why the ETF and treasury company reserves of over 2.5 million are such a large number)
All cryptocurrency If we consider that the total reserves in the stock exchanges are approximately 2.7 million, we see that an extremely limited supply directs the short and medium-term price. We can call this 6-7 million BTC (exchanges, etf, on-chain etc.).
In the past, a larger slice of the pie belonged to a larger number of dispersed investors. Today, the larger slice, which has become more important due to dead supply, is in the hands of more professional investors. Dispersed investors are affected by the psychology of these professionals. Therefore, the investor structure and asset distribution have completely changed compared to previous cycles. It will change further and at some point, when the supply in the hands of professional investors reaches 4-5 million, crypto exchanges will probably attract spot markets, not the ETF channel, professional investors will attract distributed investors somewhere. We are in a transition period, this transition period has turned Bitcoin into a technology stock and the amount of BTC that miners will now supply to the market has dropped below 1 million. What we will probably see in the next period is the maturation of the markets as the investor distribution of the issued supply constantly changes. And of course, although fewer investors sell in this process, the unit dollar price of BTC will fluctuate as the stock market reserves become shallower.” –
