Crypto analysis company CryptoQuant has published a new on-chain analysis showing that the downward turn in Bitcoin’s price can be detected weeks in advance, in parallel with the deterioration in demand indicators. According to the company’s “Apparent Demand Growth” metric, Bitcoin’s decline from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 to today’s $70,000 could be traced in six distinct steps with on-chain data before appearing in price movement.
Six Stages of Disruption in On-Chain Demand
The analysis is structured to reveal step-by-step changes in demand following Bitcoin’s cyclical peak. In the first phase, the open demand growth metric recorded its last higher low at $118,000 while the market was still rising. At that time, the upward trend in demand was maintained, and there was no clear signal of the peak on the price chart.
In the second phase, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000 and the demand metric peaked at the same time. At this point there was strong alignment in both price and on-chain demand signal.
In the third step, decomposition began. The open demand growth metric fell below the previous high low at $123,000, revealing the first sign of a decline. While demand began to drop, the price still remained high; The upward trend of the price was broken with on-chain data.
In the fourth stage, a completely bearish structure occurred in the demand measurement as Bitcoin fell to $ 114,000. A lower high and a lower low usually indicated that the trend had changed. However, at that point, BTC was still above the $110,000 level.
In the fifth phase, Bitcoin’s price eased to $101,000, while each new lower peak in the open demand data showed the price gradually moving downwards as well. The decrease in demand continued for weeks.
The sixth and final step was completed on November 16, when Bitcoin fell to $94,000, falling below the weekly 50-day moving average (SMA50). According to the analysis, SMA50 had previously lost direction; Weakness in both demand and price movement became more evident. It was stated that this intersection was a signal to take action within the framework of the analysis.
Applicability of On-Chain Rules
The graph and fiction presented are based on the method CryptoQuant calls “On-Chain Candlestick Rule”. According to this rule, if the demand indicator breaks the bullish structure while the price has recently peaked, a more logical strategy is to sell, wait and look for alignment with other on-chain or price signals.
According to the analysis, each stage in this six-step process signaled before the previous one. For an investor who monitors the open demand growth metric in real time, decision points are constantly created to reduce the risk before the decline occurs completely. As analysts emphasize, this turnaround did not occur in a single moment, but over a period of weeks.
Current Outlook and Possibilities
In the current part of the chart, it is stated that the open demand growth value has decreased significantly in recent months and approached the lower band of the index. It remains unclear whether this is a similar bottom to the accumulation phase in which the 2025 rally began in the past, or a weaker structure than previous cycles.
The analysis also notes that this six-step degradation process spans months. It was reported that in previous periods, the recovery of the demand indicator occurred gradually over a similar period.
