US-based derivatives market platform Kalshi took its first international step in Brazil. Kalshi announced that it is offering a new asset class to Brazilian investors by collaborating with XP International, one of the financial industry players, and its brokerage network Clear. Contracts on the platform were offered based on economic indicators such as inflation and interest rate, and the product was defined within the framework of derivative financial instruments regulated by the CFTC.
Products Based on Macro Data
Within the scope of the promotion, in the first phase, only Clear customers who already have international investment accounts in Brazil will be able to access the new products. The first contracts focused directly on the IPCA inflation rate and Selic interest rate decisions, which are macro indicators of the Brazilian economy. Topics such as sports or elections are not included in the contract menu, at least in the first phase of the platform.
In this business model, Kalshi leverages the power of XP and Clear, whose investor base is experienced with international markets and has a voluminous customer base. As of the last quarter of 2025, XP has a strong distribution structure consisting of approximately 4.8 million active customers, customer assets of 1.49 trillion Brazilian reais and 18 thousand consultants. Kalshi’s co-founder states that the speed of distribution has increased in countries due to the existing customer and brand value of international partners.
Market and Regulatory Framework in Brazil
Brazil has accelerated the fight against addiction caused by individual speculation with comprehensive measures throughout the country throughout 2025. The Ministry of Finance blocked more than 25 thousand illegal sites in just one year. In addition, the central self-exclusion platform established by the state received more than 217 thousand personal access blocking requests in the first 40 days. A significant portion of these requests came from users’ loss of control or mental health reasons.
While the Ministry of Health launched observatory and telepsychological support programs in 2026 to reduce the risk of addiction, it also trained 20 thousand healthcare workers. LENAD-based academic research shows that approximately 10.9 million Brazilians engage in dangerously speculative behavior that leads to financial or family problems. Approximately 1.4 million of these people are at risk of a more severe addiction.
According to Central Bank data, 24 million people transferred to online platforms via Pix at least once in the first eight months of 2024. The total monthly transfer amount increased to 30 billion reais in 2025.
Economic Research and User Behavior
In the presentation of the platform, prediction market products are framed with the “market of truth” or, in common words, the information-finance approach. In this perspective, it is emphasized that contract prices collect dispersed information and expectations in the form of probabilities. However, independent academic studies of Kalshi’s past contract data reveal that contracts, on average, lost 22 percent after wages.
Similarly, in on-chain analysis conducted on the Polymarket platform using the Polygon blockchain, 70 percent of approximately 1.7 million wallet addresses were closed with a loss. It was observed that the total profit was mainly collected among a very small group of participants.
These data point to a participatory economy where a significant portion of retail users leave with losses and the distribution of profits is concentrated. Public authorities in Brazil also built interventions on a national scale precisely because of this risk structure.
Oppositions Look Clearer in 2026
The launch of the new products in Brazil comes at a time when the country is in the spotlight with high-profile and dual-result titles such as the general election and the FIFA World Cup in the same year. However, as of now, Kalshi has neither confirmed the opening of contracts for elections nor sports events; products are limited only by macroeconomic variables.
While the platform’s distribution model and legal background attempt to position the product separately from current public health debates, regulatory authorities in the country are sensitive about whether this differentiation will be sustainable at the mass level. Whether Kalshi will expand its contract menu in the future will depend on the company policy and the regulatory processes to be carried out.
