Two fundamental analysis indicators that are carefully followed in the cryptocurrency market present a similar picture to Bitcoin’s recent movements, with periods when it was near historically significant lows. These indicators, monitored by analyst Amr Taha on the CryptoQuant platform, stand out in terms of evaluating the market momentum, although they do not promise a definitive course.
Binance Derivatives Market Index Declines
Derivative Market Index created on the Binance exchange; It allows open position, funding rates and futures transaction volume to be evaluated with a combined indicator. Values in the index range between 0 and 1, with higher levels indicating strong momentum in the derivatives market and lower levels indicating weakened speculative positions. According to the latest data, the index is around 0.30, and this level has fallen below the range of 0.43 in April 2025 and 0.27–0.31 in July-August 2024. Previously, readings in these ranges coincided with significant recoveries in Bitcoin’s price. For example, in the July-August period of 2024, while the index was recorded as 0.27, Bitcoin reached historical peaks from $ 54,000 to more than $ 108,000.
The current level of 0.30 indicates that the high momentum observed in the late 2025 bull run has almost completely unwinded. Lower derivatives market momentum means less leveraged positions in the market, lower open interest and generally weakening speculative trading intensity. This situation coincides with the periods in the past when weak hands withdrew from the market and paved the way for a new momentum.
Short-Term Investor Market Value Is Decreasing
Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Market Cap measures the total market value of short-term held Bitcoins at current prices. This indicator reveals how much assets investors who are new to the market or have recently bought are carrying, and therefore how vulnerable they are to sudden price changes. Recently, this metric fell to approximately $390 billion, falling below the level of $437 billion measured on April 7, 2025. This decrease seen in 2025 indicates just before the sharp sell-off in Bitcoin price and the subsequent recovery.
Sharp declines in short-term investor market value indicate an outflow of capital from the market as new entrants panic sell or liquidate their positions. During such periods, the buying average of investors remaining in the market decreases, which reduces the possibility of sudden sales that will suppress the price in the short term. Therefore, a solid investor base makes the market more resilient in the face of volatility.
Historical Intersection Between Two Indicators
The derivative market index and the short-term investor market value follow different dynamics independently of each other. According to the latest data, both indicators have approached the levels that previously paved the way for Bitcoin’s upward movements. Low leverage and low open interest in the derivatives market indicate that there is no longer much speculative pressure in the market. At the same time, the fact that new investors have largely withdrawn from the market indicates that the short-term selling pressure on the price has eased.
The fact that both indicators are low at the same time indicates a situation that has been seen in the past before major recoveries. When the April 2025 example is examined, it is seen that Bitcoin climbed from $ 74,000 to over $ 108,000 in a few months with similar dynamics. However, the factors that will catalyze the current picture cannot always be directly read from the on-chain data. Therefore, it does not seem possible to predict whether a possible recovery will be certain or not.
