The ongoing U.S.-Israel and Iran war is starting to affect global markets after the Strait of Hormuz closure triggers a historic oil crisis. Crude oil prices jumped 17% to nearly $110. Because of this spike, veteran strategist Ed Yardeni has increased the chances of a U.S. stock market crash to 35%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is showing surprising strength, holding near $67K despite rising tensions.
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Oil Crisis
Today, crude oil prices jumped 17% in a day, reaching their highest level since July 2022, as tensions in the Middle East increased. The rally followed a series of military escalations in the Middle East involving the U.S, Israel, and Iran, raising fears of a major supply shock.
At the same time, oil supply has dropped across the region. An Iranian drone strike forced Saudi Aramco to shut its Ras Tanura Refinery. Oil output in Iraq also fell sharply, while Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reduced shipments.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is managing offshore production to handle storage limits, while Bahrain stopped some shipments after a refinery fire.
These supply disruptions have pushed global oil prices sharply higher.
U.S. Market Crash Odds Rise to 35%
As the Strait of Hormuz closure triggers a historic oil crisis, financial analysts are warning about bigger economic risks. Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market crash to 35%, up from 20% earlier this year.
At the same time, he dropped the chances of a strong crypto market rally to just 5%.
According to Yardeni, the U.S. economy is facing two problems: rising inflation from high oil prices and slowing economic growth. This could put pressure on stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Odd of this crash can be seen in the Asian markets too. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell over 6%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell nearly 8%
Meanwhile, traders betting on Polymarket see a 72% chance that oil could reach $120 by the end of March.
Bitcoin and Major Cryptos Stay Stable Despite Market Shock
Despite the market chaos, the Bitcoin price stayed stable near $67,278, rising about 1% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin has often fallen alongside stocks during major risk-off events, despite its reputation as a hedge. However, analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Oil Crisis for a long time, crypto markets could face pressure, and Bitcoin may drop toward the $60K level.
Other major cryptocurrencies also saw small gains. Ethereum rose to around $2,007, XRP moved to $1.35, Solana climbed to $84, and Dogecoin increased to about $0.091.
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