At night, global markets were startled by the opening of oil futures. Oil It formed a large candle as it jumped to triple-digit prices. This situation causes the $150 targets talked about days ago to no longer seem absurd. Global inflationary pressure may become the most important agenda item in the coming days.
Iran Elects Its Leader
oil futures While it closed at $93 on Friday, it opened above $100 today and rose to $119. Brent oil, currently stalled at $106, was $70 just before the Iranian attack. The $50 increase could reignite curbed inflation on a global scale because energy costs are an important item in the inflation calculation.
So what happened in the last 12 hours? After Khamenei’s death, his replacement was announced. Mojtaba Khamenei, whom Trump had previously declared against, was elected as the new religious leader. Thus, leadership passed from father to son. While Israel and the USA hit the huge Shahran oil depots near Tehran, Iran announced that it would now focus on energy targets with more advanced missiles. The Revolutionary Guards made a statement: “If you can withstand the $200 oil price, continue this game.”
Turning oil refineries into open targets could cause oil prices to rise even further. Mujtaba’s appointment shows that tougher steps will be taken.
So what’s the latest situation? The emergency reserve meeting move of the G-7 countries caused oil to peak at 119 dollars for now and retreat. Trump says this is a short-term price to pay, but the US in Iran If he wants regime change, this process can continue for months. Having oil at these levels for months means that interest rates will increase again on a global scale and risk markets will be overwhelmed.
Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies
Returning to 66 thousand dollars due to yesterday’s tension Bitcoin For now, it has regained the support of 68 thousand dollars. The breakout will come when the price, which has been fluctuating around 66 thousand dollars for more than 1 month, completes this consolidation. Either $63 thousand will be lost permanently and the level of 56 thousand will be targeted. Or, with the gain of $75,000, the decline will end and the $80,300 base will turn into support again.
In a scenario where tensions in Iran are prolonged, it would be very logical for Bitcoin to break downwards, because the triple-digit oil price does not affect stocks or stocks. to cryptocurrencies It will not be good and will force a return to monetary tightening. However, if Trump can find an environment where he can declare victory in the short term, he will want to get away from this and prepare for the midterm elections. Since it is possible for Iran to sit at the agreement table after seeing that it is worn out, it can be said that we have 2-3 more weeks in the fastest scenario.
