Investors holding XRP are currently facing significant unrealized losses as the cryptocurrency continues to struggle after its sharp correction from 2025 highs. Highlighting the situation, crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO recently explained that every major XRP cycle goes through a painful capitulation phase before the next expansion begins.
His comments come as new on-chain data from Glassnode reveals the scale of investor losses across the XRP ecosystem. According to the analytics firm, approximately 36.8 billion XRP tokens are currently being held below their purchase price, translating to nearly $50.8 billion in unrealized losses.
The data reflects the impact of XRP’s sharp retracement from its 2025 highs, when the token surged above $2.80 before entering a prolonged correction. With XRP currently trading around $1.34, a large portion of investors are now waiting for the market to stabilize.
Analysts Point to Typical Crypto Market Cycles
Despite the current losses, EGRAG believes the market may simply be following patterns seen in previous cycles.
According to him, XRP cycles often end with two types of market resets: price-based capitulation and time-based capitulation. Price capitulation occurs when the market experiences a sharp drop that flushes out leveraged positions. Time capitulation, on the other hand, happens when prices remain stagnant for long periods, slowly resetting investor sentiment.
Looking at past cycles supports this theory. During the 2017–2018 XRP cycle, the market experienced both forms of correction. Prices dropped roughly 67%, followed by around 210 days of consolidation before the next phase began.
The 2021 cycle played out differently. XRP suffered a deeper 77% price decline, but the consolidation period was shorter as liquidity was quickly flushed out through a steep correction.
Key Levels That Could Shape XRP’s Next Move
From a structural perspective, EGRAG notes that XRP could still be retracing toward the origin of its previous expansion move, which sits around $0.85. Markets often revisit these zones before beginning the next major rally.
Using Fibonacci projections, he highlighted two long-term levels traders are watching. The $6.8 level could represent a potential price capitulation target, while $20 may act as a major expansion target if the next bullish cycle develops.
However, reaching those levels would likely require the market to complete its reset phase first.
XRP Remains Trapped in a Downtrend
In the short term, XRP’s technical structure remains bearish. The token continues to trade inside a descending parallel channel that began after its drop from above $2.80.
Momentum indicators also show limited strength. The RSI remains in the low-40 range, signaling weak buying pressure, while the MACD indicator is drifting lower, hinting that bullish momentum is fading.
Currently, $1.30 serves as immediate support, while a break below this level could push prices toward the $1.20 zone where buyers previously stepped in. On the upside, $1.50 acts as the first resistance, followed by stronger resistance near $1.90.
Until XRP breaks out of this structure, analysts believe the market may remain in a consolidation phase before the next major move emerges.
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FAQs
Many investors bought XRP near its 2025 highs above $2.80. With the price now around $1.34, about 36.8B XRP are held below cost, creating large unrealized losses.
Some analysts believe XRP could reach $6–$20 in a strong bull market. However, the market may need to complete a correction and consolidation phase first.
Many analysts expect XRP’s long-term outlook to depend on adoption, regulatory clarity, and overall crypto market cycles, which could drive higher valuations.
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