The fact that the upward movement in the Bitcoin market in 2024 will not show a sharp and sudden rise as in previous cycles is considered to mean that the current correction may not be as deep as in the past. Michaël van de Poppe, who focuses on technical analysis in cryptocurrency markets, supports this view with on-chain data.
Cycle Analysis with Bitcoin Loss Days Chart
In the Alphractal charts, it is seen that the days spent by Bitcoin investors in losses are examined on a logarithmic scale, along with price movements, from 2011 to the beginning of 2026. In the graph in question, colored bars show losses in certain periods; Red and orange tones dominate during the periods when they disappear most intensely. Especially in the declines in 2015, 2018 and 2022, these red bars have peaked.
The most active rise in the chart points to the Bitcoin crash in 2018. At that time, many investors bought at the market peak and waited for a long time at a loss. In contrast, the 2024-2025 period is currently at the right end of the chart; It is noticeable that the bars here largely remain in blue and purple colors, and there are no movements close to red, which indicate excessive damage.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe states that the rise in 2024 does not present a vertical and parabolic structure like previous cycles, so there is no ground for a severe bear market.
Shallow Rising Period and Its Effect on the Bear Market
Although Bitcoin peaked at around $126,000 in October 2025, it is noteworthy that there were no rapid and vertical movements, classically known as “blowoffs”. In previous cycles, sudden increases attracted new investors to the market who made late purchases at high prices, and withdrawals caused this sector to suffer long-term losses.
Since there was a shallow rise in this cycle, the number of investors stuck in high-cost positions is relatively small. The small bars in the lost days metric also show this. Thus, the impression emerges that there is no investor base as large as in the past, which brings long-term and harsh sales pressure to the market.
Indicators and Market Expectations
Van de Poppe emphasizes that various on-chain metrics in the market are also near their bottoms. Such indicators have often been observed in the past during periods when the market bottom was formed. The fact that more than one indicator is at the bottom level at the same time indicates that the duration and depth of the current decline may be more limited than in the past.
Michaël van de Poppe argues that he does not conclude that there will be a permanent bottom for the market in the near term, but that there are no signs of a long and destructive bear season as in the past.
Chart comparisons also highlight differences between cycles. In previous periods, many Bitcoin investors had to wait for a long time at a loss. It is reported that such a large mass of damage did not occur in this cycle. It is not yet clear in which direction the market will evolve in the coming months.
