Bitcoin is trading very close to a critical support level according to the Fibonacci-based on-chain average price model. Analyst João Wedson states that lower targets may come to the fore if Bitcoin loses the $63,700 level. Wedson states that $63,700 stands out as an important structural base in price movements and that the market may move to a different phase by falling below this level.
Meaning of Fibonacci Support Bands
Charts prepared by Alphractal show the Fibonacci-adjusted market average price of Bitcoin in two different time frames. While the first chart covers the period from 2020 to early 2026, the other sheds light on Bitcoin’s past price movements. The model visualizes dynamic support and resistance zones formed by dividing and multiplying the real average price of the market by different Fibonacci coefficients. These bands are indicated on the chart by colored lines extending from green to red.
On the short-term chart, Bitcoin price approached $100,000 in late 2024 and early 2025 and then broke several support bands downwards with a sharp pullback. The current price is in the blue and turquoise bands in the model, that is, in a region that has historically been considered neither too cheap nor too valuable.
Levels Followed by Analyst João Wedson
João Wedson states that the $63,700 level is an important structure measured by on-chain data. In the past, breaking down this band has triggered periods of redistribution in prices. According to Wedson, below this level, the levels of 57,000, 52,400 and finally $ 48,700 stand out, respectively. A possible pullback to $48,700 would mean a decline of approximately 28 percent from the current price.
Wedson emphasizes that these levels are not fixed, but are updated daily depending on on-chain transactions. For example, while $63,700 is calculated with today’s data, this base may change depending on market dynamics in the coming days. Continuity and direction become important in the model.
What Does the Loss of Critical Structural Level Mean?
When Bitcoin closes below an important average price band, it means that investors who buy at that level incur losses according to their costs. This change affects the behavior in the market, with the transition from investors making profits to those in loss. Investors who lose their profit positions are more likely to sell to prevent further losses.
João Wedson defines this process as a period of mass redistribution in which the price structure shifts from accumulation to active sales. A similar mechanism in Ethereum was recently observed on the macro trend line by another analyst. So when a support level is broken, the psychology of the market can change rapidly.
Bitcoin is still above the $63,700 support. As of now, the price is around $68,000 and is about 6 percent above the support band. Whether the market can maintain this threshold will become clear based on the movements in the coming days.
