A new analysis of Bitcoin’s price cycles indicates that the market bottom occurs approximately 23 months after each major top. Considering that the last rise occurred in October 2025, it is suggested that a new bottom range has been entered. This cyclicality is carefully monitored in the market.
How Did the 23-Month Cycle Come About?
According to Bitcoin charts shared by cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Tice, prices have bottomed out after approximately 23 months following the all-time high in three of the four major cycles experienced so far. In the analysis, periods starting with the peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 were examined. In each cycle, there was a significant decline over the next two years or so, and when that period ended, the market reached a new low.
The study emphasizes that with the last peak seen in October 2025, we have entered the beginning of the same 23-month period. This approach coincides with periods when selling pressure decreases and opportunities arise for buyers compared to past price movements.
It is reported that in three completed Bitcoin cycles, the bottom levels occurred in almost the same time window. According to the analysis, green stripes on the charts are considered an indicator of the repetitive nature of price movements.
Limits of the Analyst’s Interpretation and Approach
Crypto Tice published its analysis on March 8, 2026. The analyst argues that past data is not a coincidence and that the price declines losing momentum in 23 months represent a structural pattern. According to the analysis, the influence of sellers decreases in this process and the risk-return balance shifts in favor of buyers.
Crypto Tice states that past data does not provide a definitive future prediction, but shapes the possibilities. He shares the view that the current period has entered the most favorable period of the last two years.
However, the analyst also points out the limitations of the model presented. It does not give any certainty, such as that historical patterns will always work or that a new low will definitely occur. He argues that this period is a window in which selling pressure has historically diminished.
Macro Factors and Unique Circumstances
It is stated that three sample cycles were examined in the analysis. However, today’s macroeconomic conditions differ from previous periods. There are new uncertainties in the global economy, such as stagflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and the risk of forced sales from corporate wallets. These factors indicate that the process may develop differently from past bottom formations.
In previous cycles, such external effects were not seen with the same intensity. Therefore, it is still unclear whether a similar cycle will repeat.
Finally, the analyst emphasizes that the current period seems suitable for the formation of a new bottom in terms of time, but a definitive judgment should be avoided as to whether this will happen or not.
