Michael Selig, Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that they are about to take an important step to bring “perpetual”, that is, indefinite futures products, which are widely used in the crypto market, under US regulation. Selig stated that these products may be officially approved in the USA within the next month. Although platforms such as Coinbase currently offer “perp-style” futures products in the USA, it was emphasized that the current structure is different from offshore markets.
Current Situation in Perpetual Futures
Crypto futures are generally traded on foreign exchanges such as Binance, OKX and Deribit, without expiration date and with special funding mechanisms. In the USA, there are products offered by Coinbase Derivatives in the form of “long-term” contracts, which have an expiry date and are based on spot price tracking. However, the share of US stock markets in terms of open position and volume is far behind the global markets.
According to the observed data, the daily volume of Bitcoin derivative transactions subject to US regulation reached 1.35 billion dollars and the open position reached 137 million dollars; On a global scale, these values are at the level of 85 billion dollars and 43.6 billion dollars, respectively.
Difference of Real Perpetual Models
The “true perpetual” contracts that Selig focuses on have a structure that has no expiry date and follows spot prices closely with the funding rate system. These products are often offered on overseas exchanges and provide a “basic market infrastructure” not yet available in the United States. The aim of the new regulation is to make these products available in the US markets with clearly defined and standardized frameworks.
According to the statements of the CFTC chairman, it is aimed to complete this road map, which was not created by previous administrators. The technical difference between existing “perp style” products and “true perpetual” products is clearly differentiated in regulatory and operational details.
Liquidity and Infrastructure Developments
The transformation of the market infrastructure is aimed under four main headings: Clarification of products, expansion of the collateral infrastructure, strengthening of distribution channels and increasing arbitrage opportunities. Accepting stablecoins and tokenized assets as collateral in the US could mean deeper liquidity and lower volatility in markets. As a matter of fact, Coinbase Derivatives and Nodal Clear began testing the USDC stablecoin as collateral.
Expansion of broker distribution networks may increase the attractiveness of products in the United States. Additionally, the development of arbitrage opportunities could help reduce price differences between futures markets and spot and ETF markets.
Liquidity Expectation After Approval
Experts predict that with the approval of real perpetual products for professionals, open positions may increase to between $500 million and $1 billion within a few quarters, and daily volume may reach $2 to $4 billion. If the new regulations can be implemented on a broad scale across different US exchanges, the US share of global BTC derivatives volume could rise to the 10–15 percent band.
This development, together with the shift of the current market size to the USA, may have significant effects in terms of regulation and market stability. However, rather than creating new demand on their own, such derivative products allow investors to reflect their existing opinions more effectively.
Third Quarter and Market Expectations
Various market reports have assessed that the current downward trend may end as of the third quarter. It is stated that since open positions and leverage usage decreased during this period, a new balance may occur in the market. The emergence of more suitable hedging opportunities in futures transactions may enable large players to act in a more controlled manner in the spot market instead of panic selling.
Retail Investors and Systemic Differences
With the new products approved, it will be possible for retail investors in the USA to access futures trading more easily. It is noted that while this provides better price formation and risk management, it may also increase risks for inexperienced investors. Additionally, using stablecoins as collateral can strengthen their market infrastructure.
