Bitcoin’s monthly return charts point to a trend that shows that if February closes in negative, the following March also ends mostly negative. Especially when Coinglass data is examined, February closed with a decline three times in the last decade, while March ended with a loss in all three of these examples.
The Power and Limits of Historical Trends
While February closed with negative returns in 2014, 2020 and 2025 in the past, March of these years was followed by declines of 17.25 percent, 24.92 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. However, the fact that these examples are limited to only three highlights the trend in question as a traceable trend rather than a strong rule. The fact that the average return of March over the years is positive at 11.60 percent reveals that the historical picture is not shaped by a single month or example.
Year 2026 and Similar Scenarios
In February 2026, a 14.94 percent decline was recorded in the price of Bitcoin. This rate is at a level between 2020 and 2025. Additionally, January 2026 closed with a decrease of 10.17 percent. Only 2018 in the database contains similarly consecutive months that closed in minus; In that year, there was a 32.85 percent decrease in March.
In the first days of March 2026, Bitcoin’s monthly return is at 3.66 percent. However, it is not yet clear whether the rise seen at the beginning of the year will be permanent. In 2020, a short-term recovery was seen in the first part of March, but serious losses were experienced at the end of the month.
Current Conjuncture and Different Factors
The three previous negative February-March pairings occurred under different macro conditions. While there was a collapse in markets around the world in 2020 due to COVID-19, the effects of tightening liquidity conditions were felt in 2025. 2014 was the continuation of a long bear market. Each year has brought unique factors that directly impact Bitcoin’s March performance.
It is reported that March 2026 exhibited a structure that differed from previous years. Former US President Donald Trump’s statement of support for crypto legislation, the White House’s meeting with the CEO of Coinbase, and OKX exchange’s launch of a new futures product increased corporate and political activity in the sector. It is not yet known whether these developments will balance the seasonal negative trend.
Despite all these announced developments, the historical picture points to a trend; The current news flow promises a different picture. Both dynamics continue to influence the market.
Statistical Limitations and Points Where Data Is Insufficient
Bitcoin’s historical data shows that a similar situation has occurred only three times in 13 years. The fact that the market is shaped by such a short period and limited sample shows that the inferences made are based on weak statistical grounds.
However, to date, it appears that the decline experienced in February was not immediately compensated for in March. By the end of March, it will be clear whether 2026 will be a new example or a year that breaks the current trend. For now, it is considered that the rise seen at the beginning of March will not be decisive alone.
