The Strait of Hormuz is closed and the risk that the increase in oil prices will fuel inflation again is becoming evident. Bomb sounds had the opposite effect on the charts as cryptocurrencies priced the war. For now, many altcoins continue the day with gains of over 5 percent. So what does on-chain data say?
Cryptocurrencies On-Chain
Bitcoin, LTH Realized Price is one of the key levels to be protected, and Anlcnc1 drew attention to this today. This level, which represents the average cost for long-term investors, is now at $66,400. BTC is currently trying to maintain $69,000 above this. Maintaining $69,000 as support could lead to higher highs, and daily closes above $66,400 would be a positive development as it would discourage long-term investors from selling.
If we do not take into account the deviations BTC It has consistently maintained the $64,000 level, which represents the average cost basis for investors holding for 18 months to 2 years. This prevented deeper bottoms at $56,000 and below. So what is the next level in dollars? In other words, what is the cost base that needs to be gained to be convinced of the return? After the cost of LTH, Anil focused on exactly this.
“The next important cost base level is in the 12-18 month cohort. This group is currently positioned around $87,000 and may seem distant in the short term as it is above the current price, but will be a critical level to watch in the coming period.”
Another important name on the on-chain side is the analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost. According to him, risk aversion has now reached levels that indicate potential opportunities for aggressive investors.
“Binance Open positions decreased by 25% as investors reduced their leverage ratios as uncertainty increased. Whether looking at macroeconomic developments or geopolitical tensions, it was clear that this was not a period that encouraged risk-taking, and many investors seem to understand this. Concerns about ongoing inflation, combined with the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, have further increased the uncertainty surrounding the current environment. This trend of increased risk aversion can be observed by analyzing open positions on Binance, which represents the largest derivatives market in terms of volume.
Since the beginning of the year, open interest has decreased by approximately 25%, from 130,800 BTC to 97,680 BTC. In addition, the Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance also reflects a much more cautious attitude from investors today. This indicator measures derivative activity by comparing open positions to BTC reserves and gives insight into how aggressively investors are using leverage.
The weekly average fell to 0.146 compared to the monthly average of 0.155, reaching the lowest level observed since the correction in April 2025. The 0.15 threshold is particularly striking. Each time the rate fell below this level in the current cycle, it signaled the beginning of a period of extreme deleveraging in the market. This increasing risk aversion over the last few weeks seems logical given the broader macro and geopolitical context.
However, this trend has now begun to reach levels that could present potential opportunities for more aggressive investors looking to take positions against the prevailing trend.”
After February was bad, recovery expectations for March increased. If the support of historical data is felt, this month may turn into a period of profit for aggressive investors, as many risks have already been realised.
Iran Latest Situation
Iraqi armed groups claimed responsibility for attacks on US bases in Kuwait. In their statement in the evening, the Revolutionary Guards said, “The Strait of Hormuz is closed and we will target every ship that tries to pass through it. Iran will set fire to every ship that tries to pass.” This situation feeds the possibility of the continuation of the oil rise.
“We will not allow oil to leave the region.” – Iranian State Television.
Trump made statements about Iran today, in summary he said;
“The USA continues its operations in Iran. We are eliminating the serious threats posed by the terrible Iranian regime. Iran ignored our warnings and pursued nuclear weapons. The regime’s ballistic missile program was rapidly expanding. It would soon have missiles that could reach America. An Iran with nuclear weapons would be an unacceptable situation for the USA.
We are destroying the Iranian navy. We sank 10 Iranian ships. We ensure that it cannot finance or command armies beyond its borders.
We will prevail easily. It is projected to last 4-5 weeks and could take much longer. “We will do whatever it takes.”
As of 23:46, sirens are sounding in some cities of Oman and Jordan. The US evacuated the Oman embassy.
The End of Crypto Winter
Today Strategy and BitMine They again announced that they were saving money from the cryptocurrencies they fell in love with. BitMine announced last week that it received 50,928 ETH. Describing this period as a mini crypto winter, the company argues that we are now heading towards the end of it.
“Geopolitical uncertainty has increased over the past few days with the US attacking Iran, and its impact on financial and digital asset markets will be felt in the coming weeks. We continue to purchase ETH steadily and optimize the return on our ETH assets.
Bitmine continues to buy Ethereum because we find this pullback attractive due to the strengthening of fundamentals.” –Tom Lee
Compound Ethereum The company, which announced that it earned staking rewards above its staking income, hinted that it would make more efforts to increase the attractiveness of MAVAN and BMNR shares. The company is moving towards its goal of keeping 5% of its ETH supply in reserves and has already reached 3.71%.
