The ratio measuring Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold in crypto markets has reached a new turning point. According to the evaluations of crypto analyst Crypto Tice, the Bitcoin / Gold rate is entering a similar period at the end of a weak course that lasted approximately 14 months, as in the last four major cycles. This comparison, which is frequently used in the crypto world, is considered an important indicator to observe the movements of investors in search of risk escape and safe haven.
Historical Cycles in the Bitcoin/Gold Ratio
This ratio between the price movements of Bitcoin and gold has reached cyclical bottoms in the past, especially in 2014, 2018 and 2022, and these points coincided with significant market reversals. Similarly in the current market cycle, the rate fell to bottom levels approximately 14 months after its peak. According to Crypto Tice’s analysis, this same period of time overlaps exactly with the previous three cycles and indicates the continuation of the historical cyclical rhythm.
What Does Turn in Ratio Mean?
The decrease in the Bitcoin/Gold ratio indicates periods when Bitcoin remains weak compared to gold, which is seen as a traditional safe haven. Analysts state that such periods coincide with times when investors are risk-averse, capital is shifted to protective assets, and speculative positions are liquidated. The increase in the rate again shows that the risk appetite in the markets has increased and there has been an increase in interest in Bitcoin.
Is Timing Sufficient, Additional Confirmation Signals Required
Crypto Tice points out that temporal alignment alone is not enough for a market reversal. According to the analysis, three additional signals need to be seen for confirmation of a strong reversal. The first of these is the dissociation regarding momentum; In other words, the downward pressure on price movements is replaced by buyer interest. The second criterion is that transaction volume increases during the rise and Bitcoin improves with the increasing volume. The third indicator is the formation of higher lows graphically. Until these structural signals materialize, the 14-month time frame alone does not confirm the possibility of a reversal.
Crypto Tice emphasizes that the timing is at the right point, but the desired structural approvals have not yet occurred. While the time factor provides investors with a reference for the turning point, the final confirmation is expected to come with changes in the market structure.
In the current situation, it was found remarkable that similar weakening occurred in the same time period in the four main market cycles. Although this stability does not mean that history repeats itself mechanically, it requires close monitoring of whether timing and structural changes in the market are linked.
The Importance of Bitcoin/Gold Analysis for Investors
The Bitcoin/Gold ratio departs from traditional technical analysis methods that focus only on the value of Bitcoin against the US dollar. This approach provides additional clues about market sentiment and capital flows by benchmarking Bitcoin’s performance against gold, the market’s primary risk-off tool.
Today, as in the previous three cycles, the rate is again at a visible transition point after nearly 14 months of weakness. If structural signs are completed, this threshold may stand out as a harbinger of a new era for the Bitcoin market. Recent developments require investors to closely monitor this critical structural change in the coming days.
