While cryptocurrency markets have struggled to find direction in recent weeks, the expected regulatory steps may pave the way for a new wave of rise in the market, according to US-based investment bank JPMorgan. Bank analysts state that if the market structure regulation called Clarity Act, which is on the agenda in the USA, is adopted, institutional investor participation may accelerate and a strong recovery may be seen in crypto assets.
Bitcoin is on a sideways trend, market volumes are weak
There has been a significant lack of momentum in the cryptocurrency market lately. While the Bitcoin price moves horizontally in the range of approximately 60 thousand dollars, Ethereum is traded around 2,000 dollars. The decrease in transaction volumes in major stock exchanges also reveals that investor interest has weakened.
As market participants continue to search for a strong catalyst that could pull prices out of the current recession, JPMorgan analysts think this catalyst could be the crypto market structure law in the United States.
In the report published by the team led by JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, it was stated that if the regulation is approved by the middle of the year, a positive environment may be created for crypto markets in the second half of the year.
Regulatory Uncertainty Curbs Corporate Capital
According to analysts, one of the most important reasons for the cautious approach seen by both individual and institutional investors is regulatory uncertainty. The lack of clear rules causes large funds and companies to refrain from allocating new capital.
JPMorgan emphasizes that a comprehensive regulatory framework will: Clarify token classifications, determine the obligations of exchanges, reduce legal uncertainty so that large asset managers, pension funds and corporate treasuries can more easily invest in crypto assets.
It is evaluated that such institutional entry can reduce volatility by increasing market liquidity and accelerate the development of new financial products.
What Does the Clarity Act Bring?
The main purpose of the Clarity Act bill discussed in the USA is to clearly share crypto asset supervision between two main regulatory bodies:
- SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission)
- CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Under the bill, tokens will be classified as digital commodities or securities. JPMorgan analysts state that placing major tokens under CFTC supervision could reduce legal risks in the industry by reducing compliance costs.
Additionally, a “transitional clause” in the bill may allow some crypto assets with a spot ETF link to be considered as commodities before January 1, 2026. XRP, Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, Dogecoin and Chainlink are among the assets that may be included in this scope.
For new projects, it is planned to offer the opportunity to raise capital up to $75 million annually without full SEC registration. It is stated that this regulation may attract venture capital activities that have shifted out of the USA back into the country.
Senate Process Is Blocked, There Are Differences of Opinion in the Sector
However, the bill is currently pending in the US Senate. Despite months of negotiations, the failure to reach an agreement on critical items has slowed down the process.
The session, planned to be held in the Senate Banking Committee at the beginning of 2026, was postponed after Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the USA, withdrew its support for the bill. The company expressed the view that the current text could limit innovation and weaken competition.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong blamed lobby groups in the banking sector largely for the delays.
Critical Turning Point for the Market
Crypto markets are still largely driven by investor sentiment and capital flows, according to JPMorgan. Therefore, the establishment of a clear regulatory framework in the USA may not only ensure price stability, but also trigger a strong uptrend in the market.
Analysts note that the removal of regulatory uncertainty could be the long-awaited “structural catalyst” for crypto markets.
