While the largest derivative transaction of February took place today, option contracts worth a total of $ 8.72 billion on Bitcoin and Ethereum are expiring. This coincides with a period when volatility in the cryptocurrency market remains high and market sentiment remains fragile.
Option Maturity and “Max Pain” Levels
Bitcoin has the largest open position with a total of 114,705 contracts and a contract size of $7.74 billion. In Ethereum, the total value of approximately 479 thousand contracts to expire is at the level of 975 million dollars. The ratio of these options to the total open position in both assets is around 20 percent; This shows that expiration can have a significant impact on the market.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum, at their current prices, are behind their “max pain” points, where the largest number of options expire worthless. While Bitcoin is priced at $68,052 at this point, the highest pain point appears to be $75,000. While Ethereum is traded at $ 2,035, its maximum pain level is measured at $ 2,200.
Market Volatility and Option Preferences
In the options market, open positions of call contracts are gaining weight in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. While there are 66,300 call options on Bitcoin, there are 48,405 contracts available for sale. On the Ethereum side, 268,642 call and 210,350 put options are open. This composition indicates higher interest in call options on both assets.
According to the Deribit team, there is a strong weight in the Bitcoin market before settlement in terms of the contract size it carries; This may increase price sensitivity in the spot market.
Volatility Indicators and Market Sentiment
Instant volatility indicators paint a complex picture. According to the data announced on Deribit, Bitcoin’s DVOL index is at the level of 53 and with a volatility percentage of 87.7 percent, signaling fluctuation above the historical average. Although Ethereum is measured at 70 on the DVOL index, it is not at such a remarkable peak historically, with a volatility percentage of 55.7 percent.
The volatility curve for Ethereum is trending 15–20 points higher than Bitcoin, indicating that investors are pricing in more uncertainty in ETH futures. The futures structure in both assets maintains its “contango” shape, with a heavy short-term volatility premium primarily on the February maturity.
At the beginning of the month, the 25-delta curvature dropped to -30 in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting the intense demand for protection against possible sharp price declines. Later, this curvature recovered to the -8 to -9 range; Although this indicates that the severity of panic has decreased, the market is still in a cautious mode.
Greeks.live team shared the observation that “Downward price pressure has decreased, but market confidence has not been fully restored” and emphasized that large-scale call options have recently turned especially towards medium-long term contracts.
Despite this recovery, it is stated that the bear market atmosphere continues, although there are general signs of recovery in market data. According to analysts, there are no new capital inflows and no clear catalyst in the crypto market, and the negative atmosphere persists on social networks and investor sentiment.
If the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum remain below the max pain levels, this may create an upward pull in spot prices as the option maturity approaches. On the other hand, the low course of transaction volume may pave the way for a decrease in volatility towards maturity and an easing of panic pricing in the derivative market.
