A new CryptoQuant report states that Bitcoin’s current price and on-chain data show a significant closeness to the previous four-year cycle. This periodic structure of Bitcoin was re-examined through market trends and critical indicators, especially after the last halving.
Rising Phase After Halving
As in every cycle, Bitcoin entered a strong upward trend after the last halving. The price broke above the Anchored VWAP, which is indexed to the halving, confirming the strong buying pressure in the market. On a weekly basis, closes have generally occurred near the upper AVWAP band, which has historically signaled extreme optimism in the market and a potential top signal. Moreover, the upward slope and support role on the weekly SMA50 indicator showed that the uptrend is technically strengthening.
Weakening and Transformation in Trend
But during the maturation phase of the cycle, the first signs of weakening appeared. The price falling below the weekly SMA50 indicated that a change in momentum had begun in the market. At this stage, new unprecedented peaks were not reached and new peaks were formed below the previous high level. While VWAP, which was fixed at the top of the cycle, started to work as resistance, the support feature of AVWAP weakened after the halving. This process marked the transition from a phase of market expansion to a period of disintegration and fragility.
Weaknesses Seen on the Chain
With the decline in 2022, the basic indicators on the chain began to decline in parallel with the price movements. The supply at a loss increased rapidly, the NUPL indicator approached the neutral and negative area, and the amount of realized loss increased sharply. While new large investors were observed to be under pressure, miners’ profitability declined.
It is stated that a similar structure continues in the current 2026 decline. The supply held at loss was around 9.5 million BTC, which was similar to the previous cycle. The emphasis is on NUPL cooling to around +0.11, realized loss around $6 billion, and profitability falling to negative for new large investors. Although old large investors are still making profits, it is observed that this profitability is under pressure, and short-term investors have withdrawn from the market as NUPL values turned negative.
In both cycles, price weakness occurred simultaneously with deterioration in on-chain indicators. The report assessed that this pattern was not random and was a clear indicator of structural stress in the market.
Four-Year Cycle and Market Dynamics
The data shows that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle operates broadly similar to previous periods. The synchronized deterioration in both the price structure and on-chain indicators indicates a repeat of the correction phases seen in the past. This chart does not suggest that Bitcoin has entered a new market structure; On the contrary, it leads to the conclusion that it is compatible with historical cyclical behavior.
Market Stage and Prospects
The current phase exhibits the effects of the correction process, just like the 2020–2022 cycle. The fact that the breakout in price coincided with the weakness in investor behavior indicates a structural change rather than isolated fluctuations. According to the current data of the report, the four-year cycle structure continues intact. Whether the market will sink to the bottom or head towards the formation of a new bottom in the coming months will depend on the price structure and the route that on-chain indicators will follow in the coming months.
