Bitcoin has captured a green weekly candle for the first time after five weeks of falling weekly closes. This recovery has increased optimism in the crypto market after a long period of depreciation. This move by the market is seen by some commentators as a sign that the bear market is over.
Why is the 23-Month Cycle Theory on the Agenda?
The analysis made by an experienced investor recently attracted the attention of cryptocurrency investors. According to this analysis, it takes exactly 23 months for Bitcoin to go from peak to trough in each cycle. Current data shows that it has been 23 months since the market’s last all-time high. This timing, highlighted in the analysis, also overlaps with previous cycles.
Coinvo Trading, which defends the 23-month cycle theory, included the following opinion in its statement:
In each cycle, Bitcoin reached its bear market bottom exactly 23 months after its all-time peak. We are now at 23 months. This has never come as a surprise until now.
Experienced investor Peter Brandt pointed out that this observation is stronger than other prominent narratives in the market. The picture presented indicates that the bear market may end in February and recovery in the market may begin next month.
Market Data and Investor Behavior
After the rapid price decline in Bitcoin and altcoins, a remarkable recovery in market value was also observed. Total market capitalization increased from $2.19 trillion to $2.32 trillion. This increase reflects investors’ growing optimism. Additionally, Google Trends data shows that searches for “Buy Bitcoin” have reached the highest level since 2021. This development indicates that new investors are starting to show interest in the sector.
However, some experts point out that it may be too early for a revival in the market. Based on historical on-chain data, it is believed that the market needs at least another six months for a sustainable recovery. In addition, stablecoin net inflows appear to have remained negative in the last week of February. This data is considered weak in supporting the 23-month cycle theory.
Stablecoin Movements and Market Dynamics
Leon Waidmann, Head of Research of the Lisk platform, states that stablecoin inflows and outflows are an important indicator. In recent weeks, the amount of stablecoins entering the exchanges has lagged behind the amount leaving. It is stated that this trend shows that the buying pressure is not enough to initiate a permanent rise for Bitcoin.
All major Bitcoin rallies in the last year have been supported by strong stablecoin inflows. Now, big exits are attracting attention. Net outflow reaches approximately $10 billion. This situation needs to change for Bitcoin to achieve a sustainable rise.
On the other hand, despite the recovery in recent weeks, caution still prevails in the view that the bear market is definitely over. Current analysis emphasizes that the $70,000 level is a critical threshold for Bitcoin. It is considered important for the price to exceed this level and remain there permanently in terms of strengthening the recovery in the market.
