There is no calm in the Bitcoin market. The short-term respite, which rose above $66,000 with US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech, was replaced by a cautious wait with the updated data published by Coinbase Institutional. Institutional analysis indicates that the risk of the largest cryptocurrency slipping towards the critical support threshold of $ 60,000 continues, and if this level is broken, the selling pressure may intensify. Combining the movements of market makers on the options side with on-chain data, it seems that Bitcoin must exceed the $ 82,000 threshold for a real recovery.
The Threat of Negative Gamma in the Options Market
Strategists at Coinbase Institutional scrutinized options sellers’ risk management models to make sense of Bitcoin’s price movements. This indicator, called “Gamma exposure” (GEX), reveals how market makers position themselves against price changes. The “negative gamma” range, concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 band in the current chart, triggers a spiral in which brokerage firms may be forced to sell more as prices fall. This mechanism has the potential to cause the downtrend to gain self-reinforcing momentum, accelerating the journey to the major support level at $60,000.
In the upward scenario of the market, the situation becomes more complicated. The “positive gamma” zones clustered around the $85,000 and $90,000 levels whisper that sellers will make compensatory transactions as the price rises, meaning that a possible rally will turn into a sluggish consolidation process rather than an explosive rise. The $82,000 level appears to be the most difficult obstacle that Bitcoin must pass in order to renew its upward hopes. Failure to overcome this technical resistance means that the lack of stability in the market will continue and investors will remain cautious.
Capital Outflow Alarm in On-Chain Data
The pessimistic atmosphere in technical analysis is also supported by concrete data on the blockchain. According to the information shared by analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Realized Cap decreased from its peak of $1.127 trillion in November 2025 to $1.094 trillion, with a loss of approximately $33 billion. This decline, which has been experienced for two months in a row, proves that there is a regular capital outflow rather than fresh money inflow to the market. The fact that 30-day net position changes are in the negative zone shows that institutional and individual investors tend to convert their assets into cash.
The data provided by Glassnode also reinforces the “defense” mode in the market. The 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1; This symbolizes that most of the Bitcoins sold were disposed of at a loss. Historical cycles remind us that such periods of “loss selling” can last for months until liquidity conditions improve. According to Santiment, excessive optimism and “bear season is over” statements on social media platforms generally work as reverse indicators that point to local peaks and subsequent sharp corrections.
