While Bitcoin is preparing for a negative monthly closing for the fourth consecutive time, the assessment made by market analyst EGRAG Crypto is that this process is not a coincidence and a similar structure has been seen in past cycles. The analysis points out that the dips that occur after fluctuations in cryptocurrency markets do not usually come suddenly.
Negative Series in Historical Cycles
Looking at past major Bitcoin cycles, it is observed that price movements follow a certain structure. In the first macro cycle, the bottom was confirmed by five consecutive red monthly candles. It is stated that in other cycles, red candles form in clusters, then temporary recoveries occur, and the bottom of the cycle is formed with the last big decline. On the other hand, the price usually does not reach the bottom immediately after the first sharp pullback. Instead, it is noted that the process continues with a period of fluctuating compression, liquidity outflows from the market, and subsequent short-term rises.
Latest Situation in the Current Cycle
In recent months, Bitcoin is poised for its fourth consecutive red monthly close. So far, there has been no significant recovery in the markets. Some market observers suggest that the current structure resembles the compression and repression phase observed before the bottom in past cycles. While in the past, temporary bullish rallies usually occurred just before the bottom formed, it is reported that such a movement has not occurred so far.
Possible Scenarios and Market Structure
Analyst EGRAG Crypto expects the most likely scenario to be a brief relief rally after the completion of the fourth red month, followed by a fifth or sixth red month close, followed by the actual bottom. This structure has also been seen in cycles A and C in the past. Alternative possibilities are that a rise begins immediately after the fourth red close and the bottom has not yet formed. According to the analyst, the least likely situation is that the market will recover rapidly after this point, without seeing the remaining negative months.
This current phase indicates that rather than a strong recovery, Bitcoin is going through a period of congestion where pressure increases in the market. It is emphasized that in previous cycles, the market showed temporary rises just before hitting the bottom, and permanent improvement came after these processes.
According to analysis, four consecutive months of negative closings indicate that the cycle has reached the late stages, but these levels do not directly imply a permanent bottom. If the similarity of the cycles continues, a short-term relief rise is expected. The final bottom is mostly confirmed after this fluctuation.
