Crypto asset analyst Timothy Peterson pointed out the possibility of Bitcoin rising in the next ten months. Peterson is known for the statistical models he developed in the field of financial macro analysis and cryptocurrency. The long-term price movements examined by the analyst reveal that the projections made based on Bitcoin’s historical data are positive.
Fundamentals of Statistical Model
Peterson offers an analysis that includes Bitcoin prices since 2011 and focuses on active 24-month periods. It is seen that prices closed positively in 50 percent of the months of the last two years, and under such conditions, Bitcoin moved to a higher level ten months later. This analysis specifically focuses on the forward performance of multi-year cycles.
Probabilities and Prospects in Numbers
According to statistical data, when similar conditions occurred in the past, the probability of Bitcoin reaching higher prices after ten months was calculated as 88 percent. It is also stated that the average return is approximately 82 percent. It is noted that when applied to current price levels, this rate points to a potential target of around $122,000 for Bitcoin.
A statistical approach is adopted in the analysis, based on long-term trends rather than fuzzy short-term fluctuations. When it is determined that positive periods regarding price movements are in the majority on a yearly basis, it is emphasized that buying movements are more likely in the following period.
While Peterson directly highlights the possibility presented by the model in his evaluation, he also points out that this type of analysis does not contain certainty. It is reminded that historical data may not always be valid in the face of today’s macroeconomic conditions and market fluctuations.
Timothy Peterson states, “When half of the last 24 months have been positive, the probability of a higher price in the next 10 months is calculated as 88 percent. With an average return of 82 percent, a level of approximately $122,000 can be predicted from the current level. The research is based on data since 2011.”
Interpretation and Limitations of the Model
This model offers a framework based on probability rather than prediction. It is argued that regardless of short-term price fluctuations, long-term positive trends could result in stronger performance for Bitcoin going forward. However, it is especially emphasized that this is not a guarantee and only provides a probability-based perspective based on historical data.
Due to Bitcoin’s unstable nature and sensitivity to global economic conditions, it cannot be certain that past transactions will repeat. Still, the model is presented as an indicator for investors to evaluate the long-term outlook.
