February 20 is an important threshold for the first quarter because two major developments are happening today. The PCE report will show how the Fed is doing in the fight against inflation. The Supreme Court tariff decision will be the moment to decide whether the customs duty chaos in 2025 will revive again.
PCE Report
Fed’s inflation considered as an indicator P.C.E. The report will be announced at 16:30. Expectations and previous month figures are at 2.8%. Core PCE had come in at 2.9% the previous month, but in this month’s January report, the expectation is for it to drop to 2.8%. Before the data arrives, the market expectation is that rates will not change in the March and April interest meetings.
Powell He will leave office in May, meaning he will remain at the head of the institution until the June meeting. A maximum of two interest rate cuts are expected this year, as employment figures are strong and inflation has not yet approached the 2% level.
If the PCE comes in below expectations, the expectation that there will be 2 interest rate cuts for 2026 may strengthen. This will help recover appetite in risk markets.
Supreme Court Tariff Decision
The Trump administration had said the decision would come in January, but it did not happen. There is until March and the Supreme Court is expected to make some announcements today. Exactly one month ago, the January deadline passed and the institution went on holiday. Experts expect the Supreme Court to announce the tariff decision at 18:00 today, after a 1-month holiday. If the decision is not announced, the expectation will be the next week, so we are not talking about a 100% decision announcement date.
If the decision regarding tariffs is against Trump, the announcement will cause cryptocurrencies to fall rapidly. The year 2025 is behind us, albeit difficult, and we have all seen how big blows cryptocurrencies suffered in the customs tariff bargaining processes. If tariffs are canceled now, the United States will lose trillions of dollars in deals. Hundreds of billions of dollars of tax revenue will be returned to countries.
trump He said that the cancellation scenario would mean destruction for the economy. The biggest negative on cryptocurrencies since the hearing in November is the Supreme Court’s tariff decision, and if the decision is announced today, a big “thing” will be left behind. Not canceling the tariffs will be in favor of crypto as it will prevent an environment of uncertainty.
