According to the latest assessment published by market research and brokerage company K33, Bitcoin’s structure in the current market is distinctly similar to the final phase of the 2022 bear period. Company experts emphasize that many structural similarities stand out, pointing out the fatigue in participant sentiment, especially in market positions, and the contraction in derivative products.
Historical Similarities in the Bitcoin Market
In its report, K33 states that under current conditions, the tendency to reduce risk in derivative markets continues, retail investor interest remains weak and leveraged investors act cautiously. Additionally, long-term participants are observed to be gradually repositioning their investments. These elements are reminiscent of the process seen in late 2022, where Bitcoin stabilized after a long deleveraging cycle.
Sensitivity and Positions
In K33’s assessment, it is stated that market participants did not take positions with the expectation of a strong rise, on the contrary, they acted more defensively. It is reported that liquidity is limited and cautious attitude prevails. The company points out that similar situations in the past have led to two possible outcomes: A sudden and final wave of volatility followed by the formation of a clear bottom, or a recovery of the trend with a gradual stabilization process.
The company still avoids declaring a clear “bottom point” in the current environment, but points out that the impression that it is entering the final phase is getting stronger. In particular, the decrease in open positions and the decrease in speculative excess generally cause the market to remain volatile and stable for a while in such periods.
Market Outlook and Future Scenarios
In the report submitted by K33, it is stated that it is not yet clear whether these similarities indicate the formation of a full base for Bitcoin. It is reported that there is currently structural stress in the market, but it has not yet reached the “breaking” level.
The analysis points out that after the current fluctuation, the market may either settle on a consolidation base or create a new downward leg. Balancing positions, especially in derivative markets, reducing compulsory liquidations and re-emerging demand in periods of weakness are among the prerequisites for the start of a definitive recovery process.
K33’s analysis points out that the market is still structurally stressed, but there is no major breakout. This distinction may play a key role in determining which direction Bitcoin will trend in the coming period.
