Cryptocurrency markets are on the verge of a new debate with the latest assessments by Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. In his current post on his social media account, McGlone claimed that the “bubble” that has been talked about for a long time in Bitcoin is now over and a large-scale price correction may be on the way. According to the experienced market analyst, there is a possibility that the price will fall to the $ 10,000 level when the cyclical declines that Bitcoin has experienced so far are repeated.
85 Percent Drop Probability and Historical Perspective
Mike McGlone is one of the notable names in financial markets with more than 30 years of macro analysis experience. He provides evaluations on global markets and crypto assets through his role in the Bloomberg Intelligence research team. In his latest analysis, he reminded that Bitcoin has experienced sharp value losses exceeding 80 percent in major bear markets in the past. McGlone said a pullback of a similar scope would be roughly $10,000 above the recent peak price.
McGlone described the current market environment as a “liquidity lottery.” He pointed out that in this period when monetary policies are tightening, speculative investments are decreasing and the demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs is losing momentum. At the same time, a slowdown in the rate of entry of institutional investors into the market is also observed.
Average Valuation and the Dot-Com Crisis Analogy
While McGlone considers Bitcoin a speculative asset, he defines the current level of prices as well above historical averages. Based on this, he expects the asset’s valuation to return to “average” over time. Another point that the expert draws attention to is that the inflated valuations in the market are similar to the Dot-Com crisis of 2000-2002. According to McGlone, although blockchain technologies may survive in the long term, current valuations in cryptocurrencies do not seem permanent.
Macroeconomic Effects and Outlook for Risky Assets
Another basis for McGlone’s decline expectation is monetary policies. It is reported that with the US Federal Reserve pursuing a high interest rate policy until 2026, capital flows have shifted to alternatives such as traditional assets such as Treasury bonds and gold. In this environment, the pressure on Bitcoin, which does not provide returns and is seen as risky, is increasing.
The selling pressure in cryptocurrencies is also reflected in technical indicators. Bitcoin is testing the 50-week moving average level after weeks of depreciation, with technical weaknesses coming to the fore.
The $10,000 Scenario: Extreme or Real Threat?
Many market participants view Bitcoin’s $10,000 level as an extremely risky prospect, but McGlone’s warning indicates an increase in the number of institutional investors taking a bearish view on the market. According to the analysis, in order for this view to be invalidated, Bitcoin must maintain its strong support levels and turn macro trends upward again.
McGlone points out that in the current environment of liquidity tightening, periods of extreme market bullishness rarely end with mild corrections.
